Sarpsborg 08 FF 2–1 Haugesund: Result & Stats

Sarpsborg 08 FF

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Haugesund

P. Mortensen 32'

T. Heintz 5'

I. Wadji 59'

10/28/2018

Eliteserien · Round 27Sarpsborg Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 30+ matches

Sarpsborg 08 FF54%

×Draw22%

Haugesund24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sarpsborg 08 FFExpected goals in this matchHaugesund

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.01

1.27

Sarpsborg 08 FF

2.01

Haugesund

1.27

Sarpsborg 08 FF creates 58% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 30 away

1.67

creates per match

1.07

1.46

allows per match

2.36

creates per match

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.67

Haugesund

1.07

allows per match

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.46

Haugesund

2.36

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Sarpsborg 08 FF-0.10scores less

Haugesund-0.10scores less

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sarpsborg 08 FF ↓

Haugesund →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Sarpsborg 08 FF or draw

76%

Sarpsborg 08 FF or Haugesund

78%

Draw or Haugesund

46%

Winning margin

Sarpsborg 08 FF wins by 2+

32%

Haugesund wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Sarpsborg 08 FF 1+ goals

87%

Sarpsborg 08 FF 2+ goals

59%

Sarpsborg 08 FF 3+ goals

32%

Haugesund 1+ goals

72%

Haugesund 2+ goals

36%

Haugesund 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Sarpsborg 08 FF (draw refunded)

69%

Haugesund (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sarpsborg 08 FF at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.46 · 40 matches

Haugesund away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.36 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.67 + Haugesund defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.01

Haugesund attack 1.07 + Sarpsborg 08 FF defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Sarpsborg 08 FF scores more

54%

level

22%

Haugesund scores more

24%

Sarpsborg 08 FF at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Sarpsborg 08 FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

69

P. Mortensen

Sarpsborg 08 FF · F

7.5

Match Events

5'

T. Heintz

25'

H. Singh← K. Zachariassen

32'

P. Mortensen

46'

I. Koné← T. Kallevåg

53'

Babajide David Akintola

59'

I. Wadji↳ I. Koné

71'

Joachim Thomassen

74'

Ben Kantie Karamoko

80'

R. Muhammed← T. Heintz

84'

K. Velde← Bruno Leite

88'

G. Vetti← J. Tveita

90'

Ibrahima Wadji

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SarpsborgHaugesund

Overview

56%Possession44%

12Total Shots6

0Corners6

9Fouls20

Shots

12Total Shots6

6On Target2

6Off Target1

0Blocked3

7Inside Box5

5Outside Box1

Passing

56%Possession44%

450Total Passes339

329Accurate Passes219

73%Pass Accuracy65%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

9Fouls20

1Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

2Offsides4

Eliteserien: Sarpsborg 08 FF 2–1 Haugesund

Sarpsborg 08 FF beat Haugesund 2-1 in Eliteserien on October 28, 2018.

Goals: T. Heintz (5'), P. Mortensen (32'), I. Wadji (59').

Sarpsborg 08 FF controlled possession (56%) and registered 12 shots to 6.

The match was played at Sarpsborg Stadion in Sarpsborg.

Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Haugesund — Eliteserien 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eliteserien: Sarpsborg 08 FF 2–1 Haugesund