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Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Ham-Kam — Eliteserien 2026

Sarpsborg 08 FF
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Preview
15:00
Ham-Kam
Ham-Kam
7/26/2026EliteserienEliteserien · Round 15Sarpsborg Stadion
Big match
47%
Sarpsborg 08 FF
model favours
47%24%29%

Both teams score in 80% of Ham-Kam’s matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
56%
over 2.5 goals
58%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Sarpsborg 08 FF47%
×Draw24%
Ham-Kam29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sarpsborg 08 FF
1.68
Ham-Kam
1.27

Sarpsborg 08 FF creates 32% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 26 away

creates per match

Sarpsborg 08 FF
1.57
Ham-Kam
1.03

allows per match

Sarpsborg 08 FF
1.51
Ham-Kam
1.78

finishing

Sarpsborg 08 FF-0.13scores less
Ham-Kam-0.18scores less

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sarpsborg 08 FF ↓

Ham-Kam →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Sarpsborg 08 FF or draw
71%
Sarpsborg 08 FF or Ham-Kam
76%
Draw or Ham-Kam
53%

Winning margin

Sarpsborg 08 FF wins by 2+
25%
Ham-Kam wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sarpsborg 08 FF 1+ goals
81%
Sarpsborg 08 FF 2+ goals
50%
Sarpsborg 08 FF 3+ goals
24%
Ham-Kam 1+ goals
72%
Ham-Kam 2+ goals
36%
Ham-Kam 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Sarpsborg 08 FF (draw refunded)
62%
Ham-Kam (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sarpsborg 08 FF at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.51 · 32 matches

Ham-Kam away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.78 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.57 + Ham-Kam defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.68

Ham-Kam attack 1.03 + Sarpsborg 08 FF defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sarpsborg 08 FF scores more
47%
level
24%
Ham-Kam scores more
29%

Sarpsborg 08 FF at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sarpsborg 08 FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 69% of Sarpsborg 08 FF’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both sides lean high-scoring (69% and 60% over 2.5)
  • Ham-Kam win just 18% against the top half (vs 44% against the bottom)
  • Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings
  • 26% of Sarpsborg 08 FF’s goals come in the first 15 minutes
  • Their last 10 meetings averaged 4.2 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Balanced
Ham-Kam
Direct / counter-attacking
49%Possession41%
79%Pass accuracy77%
13.1Shots11.8
1.66xGBiggest gap1.17
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Sarpsborg 08 FFHam-Kam

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

5
Sarpsborg 08 FF
2
Draws
3
Ham-Kam
Avg goals: 4.2BTTS: 80%
2–23–23–14–02–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
FF
DWLW
Ham-Kam
LLDWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Sarpsborg 08 FF host Ham-Kam

July 26, 2026: Sarpsborg 08 FF take on Ham-Kam in Eliteserien. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Sarpsborg 08 FF host Ham-Kam at Sarpsborg Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.