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Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF — Eliteserien 2026

Ham-Kam
Ham-Kam
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Sarpsborg 08 FF
G. Simenstad 63'
M. Koch 54'
J. Berget 47'
D. Karlsbakk 37'
8/31/2025EliteserienEliteserien · Round 20Briskeby Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 27+ matches

Ham-Kam33%
×Draw23%
Sarpsborg 08 FF44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ham-Kam
1.48
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1.74

Sarpsborg 08 FF creates 18% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 27 away

creates per match

Ham-Kam
1.29
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1.81

allows per match

Ham-Kam
1.67
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1.66

finishing

Ham-Kam+0.49scores more
Sarpsborg 08 FF-0.22scores less

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ham-Kam ↓

Sarpsborg 08 FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Ham-Kam or draw
56%
Ham-Kam or Sarpsborg 08 FF
77%
Draw or Sarpsborg 08 FF
67%

Winning margin

Ham-Kam wins by 2+
15%
Sarpsborg 08 FF wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Ham-Kam 1+ goals
77%
Ham-Kam 2+ goals
43%
Ham-Kam 3+ goals
19%
Sarpsborg 08 FF 1+ goals
82%
Sarpsborg 08 FF 2+ goals
52%
Sarpsborg 08 FF 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Ham-Kam (draw refunded)
43%
Sarpsborg 08 FF (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ham-Kam at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.67 · 27 matches

Sarpsborg 08 FF away — creates 1.81, concedes 1.66 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ham-Kam attack 1.29 + Sarpsborg 08 FF defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.48

Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.81 + Ham-Kam defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ham-Kam scores more
33%
level
23%
Sarpsborg 08 FF scores more
44%

Sarpsborg 08 FF at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sarpsborg 08 FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13
B. UtvikSarpsborg 08 FFSarpsborg 08 FF · D
8.3

Match Events

37'
D. Karlsbakk↳ D. Job
41'
Gustav GranathCard upgrade
42'
Gustav Granath
46'
G. Simenstad← V. Jonsson
47'
J. Berget↳ P. Reinhardsen
54'
M. Koch↳ B. Utvik
59'
S. Gudjohnsen← S. Sorli
60'
M. Opoku← D. Karlsbakk
63'
G. Simenstad↳ A. Ekeroth
64'
M. Pedersen← M. Mawa
71'
A. Sanyang← D. Job
71'
E. Wichne← P. Reinhardsen
77'
H. Udahl← K. Lien
78'
E. Gojani← T. Soras
88'
P. Sunday← F. Sjolstad
90+2'
M. Svenningsen Gronn← J. Berget

Possession

42%Ham-Kam

Shots

7Ham-Kam

Pass accuracy

48%Ham-Kam

Statistics

Ham-KamSarpsborg
Overview
42%Possession58%
7Total Shots20
0.61Expected Goals (xG)2.91
6Corners13
8Fouls11
Shots
7Total Shots20
5On Target6
2Off Target8
0Blocked6
6Inside Box15
1Outside Box5
Passing
42%Possession58%
350Total Passes489
280Accurate Passes418
80%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
4Saves4
Discipline
8Fouls11
1Red Cards0
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Ham-Kam vs Sarpsborg 08 FF

Sarpsborg 08 FF beat Ham-Kam 3-1 in Eliteserien on August 31, 2025.

Goals: D. Karlsbakk (37'), J. Berget (47'), M. Koch (54'), G. Simenstad (63').

Sarpsborg 08 FF controlled possession (58%) and registered 20 shots to 7.

The match was played at Briskeby Arena in Hamar.