Sarpsborg 08 FF 2–2 Ham-Kam: Result & Stats

Sarpsborg 08 FF

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Ham-Kam

Camil Mmaee 87'

B. Gueye 74'

L. Mettler 89'

G. Simenstad 65'

3/26/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Sarpsborg 08 FF59%

×Draw21%

Ham-Kam20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sarpsborg 08 FFExpected goals in this matchHam-Kam

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.11

1.15

Sarpsborg 08 FF

2.11

Ham-Kam

1.15

Sarpsborg 08 FF creates 83% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 14 away

2.30

creates per match

1.14

1.15

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Sarpsborg 08 FF

2.30

Ham-Kam

1.14

allows per match

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.15

Ham-Kam

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sarpsborg 08 FF+0.00on par

Ham-Kam+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sarpsborg 08 FF ↓

Ham-Kam →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Sarpsborg 08 FF or draw

80%

Sarpsborg 08 FF or Ham-Kam

79%

Draw or Ham-Kam

41%

Winning margin

Sarpsborg 08 FF wins by 2+

36%

Ham-Kam wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Sarpsborg 08 FF 1+ goals

88%

Sarpsborg 08 FF 2+ goals

62%

Sarpsborg 08 FF 3+ goals

35%

Ham-Kam 1+ goals

68%

Ham-Kam 2+ goals

32%

Ham-Kam 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Sarpsborg 08 FF (draw refunded)

75%

Ham-Kam (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sarpsborg 08 FF at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.15 · 20 matches

Ham-Kam away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 2.30 + Ham-Kam defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 2.11

Ham-Kam attack 1.14 + Sarpsborg 08 FF defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Sarpsborg 08 FF scores more

59%

level

21%

Ham-Kam scores more

20%

Sarpsborg 08 FF at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Sarpsborg 08 FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

65'

74'

87'

89'

Sarpsborg

Ham-Kam

12

2

3

4

5

6

10

⚽

17

19

20

24

1

5

4

24

21

33

81

26

10

11

15

Manager: Even Sel

Sarpsborg 08 FF substitutes

18Gueye7Mmaee

Manager: Thomas Myhre

Ham-Kam substitutes

18Simenstad

Friendlies Clubs: Sarpsborg 08 FF 2–2 Ham-Kam

Sarpsborg 08 FF and Ham-Kam drew 2-2 in Friendlies Clubs on March 26, 2026.

Goals: G. Simenstad (65'), B. Gueye (74'), Camil Mmaee (87'), L. Mettler (89').

Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Ham-Kam — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Friendlies Clubs: Sarpsborg 08 FF 2–2 Ham-Kam