Sarpsborg 08 FF 1–1 Bryne: Result & Stats

Sarpsborg 08 FF

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Bryne

D. Karlsbakk 30'

D. Moreira 20'

6/22/2025

Eliteserien · Round 10Sarpsborg Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Sarpsborg 08 FF47%

×Draw24%

Bryne28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sarpsborg 08 FFExpected goals in this matchBryne

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.23

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.66

Bryne

1.23

Sarpsborg 08 FF creates 35% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 10 away

1.57

creates per match

0.94

1.51

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.57

Bryne

0.94

allows per match

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.51

Bryne

1.75

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

Sarpsborg 08 FF-0.13scores less

Bryne+0.16scores more

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sarpsborg 08 FF ↓

Bryne →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Sarpsborg 08 FF or draw

72%

Sarpsborg 08 FF or Bryne

76%

Draw or Bryne

53%

Winning margin

Sarpsborg 08 FF wins by 2+

25%

Bryne wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Sarpsborg 08 FF 1+ goals

81%

Sarpsborg 08 FF 2+ goals

49%

Sarpsborg 08 FF 3+ goals

23%

Bryne 1+ goals

71%

Bryne 2+ goals

35%

Bryne 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Sarpsborg 08 FF (draw refunded)

63%

Bryne (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sarpsborg 08 FF at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.51 · 32 matches

Bryne away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.75 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.57 + Bryne defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.66

Bryne attack 0.94 + Sarpsborg 08 FF defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sarpsborg 08 FF scores more

47%

level

24%

Bryne scores more

28%

Sarpsborg 08 FF at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sarpsborg 08 FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

F. Tebo Uchenna

Sarpsborg 08 FF · D

8.2

Match Events

20'

D. Moreira↳ E. Saunes

30'

D. Karlsbakk

60'

M. Thornes← D. Moreira

60'

H. Larsen← S. Bojadzic

66'

J. Berget← A. Sanyang

66'

M. Vestergaard← V. E. Halvorsen

66'

N. Sandberg← M. Jeahze

77'

M. Haheim-Elveseter← D. Karlsbakk

83'

J. Tveita← L. Qvigstad

85'

S. Gudjohnsen← H. Tangen

90+2'

Mike Vestergård

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SarpsborgBryne

Overview

51%Possession49%

7Total Shots10

0.91Expected Goals (xG)0.72

3Corners2

10Fouls14

Shots

7Total Shots10

3On Target4

2Off Target4

2Blocked2

5Inside Box6

2Outside Box4

Passing

51%Possession49%

508Total Passes492

415Accurate Passes404

82%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls14

1Yellow Cards0

2Offsides0