Bryne 0–3 Sarpsborg 08 FF: Result & Stats

Bryne

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Sarpsborg 08 FF

D. Karlsbakk 90'

D. Job 56'

F. Carstensen 5'

11/23/2025

Eliteserien · Round 29Bryne Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Bryne42%

×Draw23%

Sarpsborg 08 FF35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BryneExpected goals in this matchSarpsborg 08 FF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.53

Bryne

1.71

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.53

Bryne creates 12% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 31 away

1.70

creates per match

1.77

1.29

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Bryne

1.70

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.77

allows per match

Bryne

1.29

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.71

-0.28scores less than expected

finishing

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

Bryne-0.28scores less

Sarpsborg 08 FF-0.16scores less

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bryne ↓

Sarpsborg 08 FF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Bryne or draw

65%

Bryne or Sarpsborg 08 FF

77%

Draw or Sarpsborg 08 FF

58%

Winning margin

Bryne wins by 2+

22%

Sarpsborg 08 FF wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Bryne 1+ goals

82%

Bryne 2+ goals

51%

Bryne 3+ goals

24%

Sarpsborg 08 FF 1+ goals

78%

Sarpsborg 08 FF 2+ goals

45%

Sarpsborg 08 FF 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Bryne (draw refunded)

55%

Sarpsborg 08 FF (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bryne at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.29 · 12 matches

Sarpsborg 08 FF away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.71 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bryne attack 1.70 + Sarpsborg 08 FF defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.71

Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.77 + Bryne defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Bryne scores more

42%

level

23%

Sarpsborg 08 FF scores more

35%

Bryne at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bryne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

D. Job

Sarpsborg 08 FF

7.7

Match Events

5'

F. Carstensen

45+3'

C. Landu-Landu← N. Strunck

46'

L. Qvigstad← D. Gaye

46'

S. Bojadzic← R. Thellufsen

46'

M. Odegaard← P. Reinhardsen

46'

D. Job← F. Carstensen

52'

Andreas Skovgaard

56'

D. Job↳ S. Sorli

62'

Andreas Hansen

63'

J. Tveita← L. Sodal

71'

S. Christiansen← J. Berget

71'

A. Trondsen← A. Sher

75'

Duarte Moreira

76'

M. Lye← A. Scriven

79'

Christian Landu-Landu

80'

V. E. Halvorsen← A. Nibe

90'

D. Karlsbakk↳ A. Trondsen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BryneSarpsborg

Overview

59%Possession41%

17Total Shots11

1.95Expected Goals (xG)2.28

5Corners1

12Fouls9

Shots

17Total Shots11

4On Target8

6Off Target0

7Blocked3

13Inside Box5

4Outside Box6

Passing

59%Possession41%

443Total Passes339

369Accurate Passes240

83%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls9

3Yellow Cards1