Sarpsborg 08 FF 2–5 Bodo/Glimt: Result & Stats

Sarpsborg 08 FF

FT

2 – 5

HT: 1 – 2

Bodo/Glimt

10/18/2025

Eliteserien · Round 25Sarpsborg Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Sarpsborg 08 FF29%

×Draw23%

Bodo/Glimt48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sarpsborg 08 FFExpected goals in this matchBodo/Glimt

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.77

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.33

Bodo/Glimt

1.77

Bodo/Glimt creates 33% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 14 away

1.50

creates per match

2.00

1.53

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.50

Bodo/Glimt

2.00

allows per match

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.53

Bodo/Glimt

1.16

-0.05on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sarpsborg 08 FF-0.05on par

Bodo/Glimt+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sarpsborg 08 FF ↓

Bodo/Glimt →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Sarpsborg 08 FF or draw

52%

Sarpsborg 08 FF or Bodo/Glimt

77%

Draw or Bodo/Glimt

71%

Winning margin

Sarpsborg 08 FF wins by 2+

12%

Bodo/Glimt wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Sarpsborg 08 FF 1+ goals

74%

Sarpsborg 08 FF 2+ goals

38%

Sarpsborg 08 FF 3+ goals

15%

Bodo/Glimt 1+ goals

83%

Bodo/Glimt 2+ goals

53%

Bodo/Glimt 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Sarpsborg 08 FF (draw refunded)

38%

Bodo/Glimt (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sarpsborg 08 FF at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.53 · 11 matches

Bodo/Glimt away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.16 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.50 + Bodo/Glimt defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.33

Bodo/Glimt attack 2.00 + Sarpsborg 08 FF defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sarpsborg 08 FF scores more

29%

level

23%

Bodo/Glimt scores more

48%

Bodo/Glimt at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Bodo/Glimt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff