Bodo/Glimt 1–2 Sarpsborg 08 FF: Result & Stats

Bodo/Glimt

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Sarpsborg 08 FF

P. Berg 34'

F. Tebo Uchenna 90'

J. Berget 37'

6/29/2025

Eliteserien · Round 11Aspmyra Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Bodo/Glimt60%

×Draw20%

Sarpsborg 08 FF20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bodo/GlimtExpected goals in this matchSarpsborg 08 FF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.31

1.28

Bodo/Glimt

2.31

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.28

Bodo/Glimt creates 80% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 11 away

2.71

creates per match

1.74

0.82

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Bodo/Glimt

2.71

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.74

allows per match

Bodo/Glimt

0.82

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.91

+0.41scores more than expected

finishing

-0.19scores less than expected

finishing

Bodo/Glimt+0.41scores more

Sarpsborg 08 FF-0.19scores less

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bodo/Glimt ↓

Sarpsborg 08 FF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Bodo/Glimt or draw

80%

Bodo/Glimt or Sarpsborg 08 FF

80%

Draw or Sarpsborg 08 FF

40%

Winning margin

Bodo/Glimt wins by 2+

38%

Sarpsborg 08 FF wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Bodo/Glimt 1+ goals

90%

Bodo/Glimt 2+ goals

67%

Bodo/Glimt 3+ goals

40%

Sarpsborg 08 FF 1+ goals

72%

Sarpsborg 08 FF 2+ goals

37%

Sarpsborg 08 FF 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Bodo/Glimt (draw refunded)

75%

Sarpsborg 08 FF (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bodo/Glimt at home — creates 2.71, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

Sarpsborg 08 FF away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bodo/Glimt attack 2.71 + Sarpsborg 08 FF defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 2.31

Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.74 + Bodo/Glimt defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Bodo/Glimt scores more

60%

level

20%

Sarpsborg 08 FF scores more

20%

Bodo/Glimt at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Bodo/Glimt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

H. Aleesami

Bodo/Glimt · D

8.6

Match Events

34'

P. Berg↳ F. Bjorkan

37'

J. Berget↳ A. Sanyang

45'

Mohanad Jeahze

64'

N. Sandberg← M. Jeahze

73'

S. Auklend← U. Saltnes

73'

S. Fet← H. Evjen

73'

I. Maatta← O. Blomberg

79'

H. Tangen← E. Wichne

79'

V. E. Halvorsen← D. Karlsbakk

86'

A. Helmersen← K. Hogh

86'

S. Gudjohnsen← S. Christiansen

86'

P. Reinhardsen← J. Berget

90+4'

J. Gundersen← F. Sjovold

90'

F. Tebo Uchenna↳ N. Sandberg

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Bodo/GlimtSarpsborg

Overview

66%Possession34%

29Total Shots10

1.90Expected Goals (xG)1.48

10Corners2

5Fouls10

Shots

29Total Shots10

5On Target6

13Off Target1

11Blocked3

19Inside Box6

10Outside Box4

Passing

66%Possession34%

663Total Passes356

589Accurate Passes282

89%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

5Fouls10

0Yellow Cards1

2Offsides2