Sarpsborg 08 FF 3–1 Aalesund: Result & Stats

Sarpsborg 08 FF

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Aalesund

B. Utvik 68'

J. Soltvedt 36'

C. Baah 19'

I. Atanga 39'

5/29/2023

Eliteserien · Round 8Sarpsborg Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Sarpsborg 08 FF54%

×Draw21%

Aalesund24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sarpsborg 08 FFExpected goals in this matchAalesund

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.30

Sarpsborg 08 FF

2.04

Aalesund

1.30

Sarpsborg 08 FF creates 57% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 13 away

1.66

creates per match

1.13

1.47

allows per match

2.41

creates per match

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.66

Aalesund

1.13

allows per match

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.47

Aalesund

2.41

-0.06on par

finishing

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

Sarpsborg 08 FF-0.06on par

Aalesund-0.13scores less

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sarpsborg 08 FF ↓

Aalesund →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Sarpsborg 08 FF or draw

76%

Sarpsborg 08 FF or Aalesund

79%

Draw or Aalesund

46%

Winning margin

Sarpsborg 08 FF wins by 2+

32%

Aalesund wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Sarpsborg 08 FF 1+ goals

87%

Sarpsborg 08 FF 2+ goals

60%

Sarpsborg 08 FF 3+ goals

33%

Aalesund 1+ goals

73%

Aalesund 2+ goals

37%

Aalesund 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Sarpsborg 08 FF (draw refunded)

69%

Aalesund (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sarpsborg 08 FF at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.47 · 42 matches

Aalesund away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.41 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.66 + Aalesund defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 2.04

Aalesund attack 1.13 + Sarpsborg 08 FF defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Sarpsborg 08 FF scores more

54%

level

21%

Aalesund scores more

24%

Sarpsborg 08 FF at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Sarpsborg 08 FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

J. Soltvedt

Sarpsborg 08 FF · D

9.2

Match Events

19'

C. Baah↳ S. Martinsson Ngouali

36'

J. Soltvedt↳ S. Tibbling

39'

I. Atanga↳ E. Segberg

58'

David Fällman

67'

M. Karlsbakk← K. Lunding

67'

B. Kristensen← E. Moses

68'

B. Utvik↳ J. Soltvedt

70'

K. Opseth← S. Tibbling

70'

V. Torp← J. Andersen

78'

K. Ødemarksbakken← I. Atanga

80'

M. Høyland← R. Lundqvist

80'

S. Skålevik← C. Baah

86'

T. Murray← J. Kitolano

89'

M. Andersen← M. Maigaard

90'

Steffen Skalevik

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SarpsborgAalesund

Overview

61%Possession39%

20Total Shots13

11Corners7

5Fouls9

Shots

20Total Shots13

4On Target2

8Off Target7

8Blocked4

10Inside Box7

10Outside Box6

Passing

61%Possession39%

581Total Passes364

500Accurate Passes292

86%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

5Fouls9

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0