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Aalesund vs Sarpsborg 08 FF — Eliteserien 2026

Aalesund
Aalesund
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Sarpsborg 08 FF
E. Moses 90+1'
B. Kristensen 40'
M. Karlsbakk 38' (pen)
M. Maigaard 43'
A. Diop 23' (OG)
10/22/2023EliteserienEliteserien · Round 25Color Line Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Aalesund39%
×Draw22%
Sarpsborg 08 FF39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aalesund
1.73
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1.74

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 38 away

creates per match

Aalesund
1.73
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1.76

allows per match

Aalesund
1.72
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1.73

finishing

Aalesund-0.44scores less
Sarpsborg 08 FF-0.26scores less

Total goals

Over: 67Under: 3367%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 68No: 3268%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aalesund ↓

Sarpsborg 08 FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Aalesund or draw
61%
Aalesund or Sarpsborg 08 FF
78%
Draw or Sarpsborg 08 FF
61%

Winning margin

Aalesund wins by 2+
20%
Sarpsborg 08 FF wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Aalesund 1+ goals
82%
Aalesund 2+ goals
52%
Aalesund 3+ goals
25%
Sarpsborg 08 FF 1+ goals
82%
Sarpsborg 08 FF 2+ goals
52%
Sarpsborg 08 FF 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Aalesund (draw refunded)
50%
Sarpsborg 08 FF (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aalesund at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.72 · 14 matches

Sarpsborg 08 FF away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.73 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aalesund attack 1.73 + Sarpsborg 08 FF defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.73

Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.76 + Aalesund defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Aalesund scores more
39%
level
22%
Sarpsborg 08 FF scores more
39%

Aalesund at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Aalesund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29
V. TorpSarpsborg 08 FFSarpsborg 08 FF · M
8.6

Match Events

23'
A. DiopOwn goal
38'
M. KarlsbakkPenalty
40'
B. Kristensen↳ E. Segberg
43'
M. Maigaard↳ V. Torp
46'
A. Hiim← S. Christiansen
46'
R. Zekhnini← S. Tibbling
46'
P. Reinhardsen← E. Wichne
50'
K. Opseth← S. Martinsson Ngouali
60'
Victor Torp
61'
I. Atanga← B. Kristensen
69'
E. Moses← H. Melland
69'
M. Diop← M. Ramsland
81'
D. Fällman← T. Murray
90+1'
E. Moses↳ M. Diop

Possession

Aalesund: 38Sarpsborg: 6238%Aalesund

Shots

Aalesund: 14Sarpsborg: 2014Aalesund

Pass accuracy

Aalesund: 71Sarpsborg: 8346%Aalesund

Statistics

AalesundSarpsborg
Overview
38%Possession62%
14Total Shots20
1.73Expected Goals (xG)2.08
4Corners6
9Fouls8
Shots
14Total Shots20
6On Target4
4Off Target9
4Blocked7
9Inside Box11
5Outside Box9
Passing
38%Possession62%
327Total Passes522
232Accurate Passes431
71%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
9Fouls8
0Yellow Cards1
1Offsides1

Eliteserien: Aalesund 3–2 Sarpsborg 08 FF

Aalesund beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 3-2 in Eliteserien on October 22, 2023.

Goals: A. Diop (23' o.g.), M. Karlsbakk (38' pen), B. Kristensen (40'), M. Maigaard (43'), E. Moses (90+1').

Sarpsborg 08 FF controlled possession (62%) and registered 20 shots to 14.

The match was played at Color Line Stadion in Ålesund.