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Sarnese vs Latte Dolce — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Sarnese
Sarnese
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Latte Dolce
Latte Dolce
M. Montini 19'
E. Castro 86'
10/6/2024Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 5Stadio Felice Squitieri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sarnese49%
×Draw24%
Latte Dolce27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sarnese
1.68
Latte Dolce
1.17

Sarnese creates 44% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 82 away

creates per match

Sarnese
1.76
Latte Dolce
1.10

allows per match

Sarnese
1.24
Latte Dolce
1.59

finishing

Sarnese+0.00on par
Latte Dolce+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sarnese ↓

Latte Dolce →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Sarnese or draw
73%
Sarnese or Latte Dolce
76%
Draw or Latte Dolce
51%

Winning margin

Sarnese wins by 2+
26%
Latte Dolce wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sarnese 1+ goals
81%
Sarnese 2+ goals
50%
Sarnese 3+ goals
24%
Latte Dolce 1+ goals
69%
Latte Dolce 2+ goals
33%
Latte Dolce 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sarnese (draw refunded)
65%
Latte Dolce (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sarnese at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.24 · 17 matches

Latte Dolce away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.59 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sarnese attack 1.76 + Latte Dolce defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.68

Latte Dolce attack 1.10 + Sarnese defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Sarnese scores more
49%
level
24%
Latte Dolce scores more
27%

Sarnese at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sarnese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'
M. Montini
86'
E. Castro

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sarnese vs Latte Dolce

Sarnese and Latte Dolce drew 1-1 in Serie D - Girone G on October 6, 2024.

Goals: M. Montini (19'), E. Castro (86').

The match was played at Stadio Felice Squitieri in Sarno.