Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Latte Dolce vs Sarnese — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Latte Dolce
Latte Dolce
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Sarnese
Sarnese
2/2/2025Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 22Stadio Comunale Latte Dolce

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Latte Dolce33%
×Draw27%
Sarnese40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Latte Dolce
1.17
Sarnese
1.30

Sarnese creates 11% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 17 away

creates per match

Latte Dolce
1.41
Sarnese
1.41

allows per match

Latte Dolce
1.20
Sarnese
0.94

finishing

Latte Dolce+0.00on par
Sarnese+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Latte Dolce ↓

Sarnese →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Latte Dolce or draw
60%
Latte Dolce or Sarnese
73%
Draw or Sarnese
67%

Winning margin

Latte Dolce wins by 2+
14%
Sarnese wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Latte Dolce 1+ goals
69%
Latte Dolce 2+ goals
33%
Latte Dolce 3+ goals
11%
Sarnese 1+ goals
73%
Sarnese 2+ goals
37%
Sarnese 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Latte Dolce (draw refunded)
46%
Sarnese (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Latte Dolce at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.20 · 80 matches

Sarnese away — creates 1.41, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Latte Dolce attack 1.41 + Sarnese defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.17

Sarnese attack 1.41 + Latte Dolce defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Latte Dolce scores more
33%
level
27%
Sarnese scores more
40%

Sarnese at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sarnese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone G: Latte Dolce 0–1 Sarnese

Sarnese beat Latte Dolce 1-0 in Serie D - Girone G on February 2, 2025.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Latte Dolce in Sassari.