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Sarmiento Resistencia vs San Jorge Tucumán — Torneo Federal A 2018

Sarmiento Resistencia
Sarmiento Resistencia
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
San Jorge Tucumán
San Jorge Tucumán
12/2/2018Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Zone 4 - 17Estadio Centenario del Club Atlético Sarmiento (Resistencia, Provincia del Chaco)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sarmiento Resistencia41%
×Draw26%
San Jorge Tucumán33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sarmiento Resistencia
1.39
San Jorge Tucumán
1.21

Sarmiento Resistencia creates 15% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 17 away

creates per match

Sarmiento Resistencia
1.25
San Jorge Tucumán
1.59

allows per match

Sarmiento Resistencia
0.83
San Jorge Tucumán
1.53

finishing

Sarmiento Resistencia+0.00on par
San Jorge Tucumán+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sarmiento Resistencia ↓

San Jorge Tucumán →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Sarmiento Resistencia or draw
67%
Sarmiento Resistencia or San Jorge Tucumán
74%
Draw or San Jorge Tucumán
59%

Winning margin

Sarmiento Resistencia wins by 2+
19%
San Jorge Tucumán wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Sarmiento Resistencia 1+ goals
75%
Sarmiento Resistencia 2+ goals
40%
Sarmiento Resistencia 3+ goals
16%
San Jorge Tucumán 1+ goals
70%
San Jorge Tucumán 2+ goals
34%
San Jorge Tucumán 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Sarmiento Resistencia (draw refunded)
56%
San Jorge Tucumán (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sarmiento Resistencia at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.83 · 108 matches

San Jorge Tucumán away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sarmiento Resistencia attack 1.25 + San Jorge Tucumán defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.39

San Jorge Tucumán attack 1.59 + Sarmiento Resistencia defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sarmiento Resistencia scores more
41%
level
26%
San Jorge Tucumán scores more
33%

Sarmiento Resistencia at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sarmiento Resistencia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torneo Federal A: Sarmiento Resistencia 1–2 San Jorge Tucumán

San Jorge Tucumán beat Sarmiento Resistencia 2-1 in Torneo Federal A on December 2, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Centenario del Club Atlético Sarmiento (Resistencia, Provincia del Chaco).