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San Jorge Tucumán vs Sarmiento Resistencia — Torneo Federal A 2018

San Jorge Tucumán
San Jorge Tucumán
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sarmiento Resistencia
Sarmiento Resistencia
10/19/2018Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Zone 4 - 8Estadio Ángel Pascual Sáez (San Miguel de Tucumán, Provincia de Tucumán)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

San Jorge Tucumán52%
×Draw27%
Sarmiento Resistencia22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Jorge Tucumán
1.46
Sarmiento Resistencia
0.84

San Jorge Tucumán creates 74% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 114 away

creates per match

San Jorge Tucumán
1.71
Sarmiento Resistencia
0.86

allows per match

San Jorge Tucumán
0.82
Sarmiento Resistencia
1.22

finishing

San Jorge Tucumán+0.00on par
Sarmiento Resistencia+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Jorge Tucumán ↓

Sarmiento Resistencia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

San Jorge Tucumán or draw
78%
San Jorge Tucumán or Sarmiento Resistencia
73%
Draw or Sarmiento Resistencia
48%

Winning margin

San Jorge Tucumán wins by 2+
26%
Sarmiento Resistencia wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

San Jorge Tucumán 1+ goals
77%
San Jorge Tucumán 2+ goals
43%
San Jorge Tucumán 3+ goals
18%
Sarmiento Resistencia 1+ goals
57%
Sarmiento Resistencia 2+ goals
21%
Sarmiento Resistencia 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

San Jorge Tucumán (draw refunded)
70%
Sarmiento Resistencia (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Jorge Tucumán at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

Sarmiento Resistencia away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.22 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Jorge Tucumán attack 1.71 + Sarmiento Resistencia defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.46

Sarmiento Resistencia attack 0.86 + San Jorge Tucumán defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

San Jorge Tucumán scores more
52%
level
27%
Sarmiento Resistencia scores more
22%

San Jorge Tucumán at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "San Jorge Tucumán will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: San Jorge Tucumán vs Sarmiento Resistencia

San Jorge Tucumán beat Sarmiento Resistencia 2-1 in Torneo Federal A on October 19, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Ángel Pascual Sáez (San Miguel de Tucumán, Provincia de Tucumán).