Sarmiento Resistencia 2–2 Def. de Pronunciamiento

Sarmiento Resistencia

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Def. de Pronunciamiento

S. Parera 57' (pen)

R. Montenegro 48'

Y. Gurnel 66'

Mauro Gutiérrez 45'

10/15/2022

Torneo Federal A · Group B - 34Estadio Centenario del Club Atlético Sarmiento

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Sarmiento Resistencia50%

×Draw28%

Def. de Pronunciamiento22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sarmiento ResistenciaExpected goals in this matchDef. de Pronunciamiento

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.82

Sarmiento Resistencia

1.38

Def. de Pronunciamiento

0.82

Sarmiento Resistencia creates 68% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 88 away

1.27

creates per match

0.81

0.83

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Sarmiento Resistencia

1.27

Def. de Pronunciamiento

0.81

allows per match

Sarmiento Resistencia

0.83

Def. de Pronunciamiento

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sarmiento Resistencia+0.00on par

Def. de Pronunciamiento+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sarmiento Resistencia ↓

Def. de Pronunciamiento →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Sarmiento Resistencia or draw

78%

Sarmiento Resistencia or Def. de Pronunciamiento

72%

Draw or Def. de Pronunciamiento

50%

Winning margin

Sarmiento Resistencia wins by 2+

24%

Def. de Pronunciamiento wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Sarmiento Resistencia 1+ goals

75%

Sarmiento Resistencia 2+ goals

40%

Sarmiento Resistencia 3+ goals

16%

Def. de Pronunciamiento 1+ goals

56%

Def. de Pronunciamiento 2+ goals

20%

Def. de Pronunciamiento 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Sarmiento Resistencia (draw refunded)

69%

Def. de Pronunciamiento (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sarmiento Resistencia at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.83 · 109 matches

Def. de Pronunciamiento away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.49 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sarmiento Resistencia attack 1.27 + Def. de Pronunciamiento defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.38

Def. de Pronunciamiento attack 0.81 + Sarmiento Resistencia defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Sarmiento Resistencia scores more

50%

level

28%

Def. de Pronunciamiento scores more

22%

Sarmiento Resistencia at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Sarmiento Resistencia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'

Mauro Gutiérrez

48'

R. Montenegro

57'

S. PareraPenalty

62'

D. Sánchez← N. Rodríguez

66'

N. Peloso← S. Parera

66'

A. Araujo← J. Rodríguez

66'

Y. Gurnel

70'

M. Sampayo← Mauro Gutiérrez

77'

B. Escobar← N. Speck

85'

G. González← F. Domínguez

90'

L. Larroza← A. Pastorelli

90'

J. Ferreyra← H. Echague

Sarmiento

Def.

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Parera

▼

Speck

Manager: L. Fernández

66'▲N. Peloso←▼S. Parera

66'▲A. Araujo←▼J. Rodríguez

77'▲B. Escobar←▼N. Speck

85'▲G. González←▼F. Domínguez

Sarmiento Resistencia substitutes

PelosoAraujoEscobarGonzález

Manager: R. De Angélis

62'▲D. Sánchez←▼N. Rodríguez

70'▲M. Sampayo←▼Mauro Gutiérrez

90'▲L. Larroza←▼A. Pastorelli

90'▲J. Ferreyra←▼H. Echague

Def. de Pronunciamiento substitutes

SánchezSampayoLarrozaFerreyra

Torneo Federal A: Sarmiento Resistencia 2–2 Def. de Pronunciamiento

Sarmiento Resistencia and Def. de Pronunciamiento drew 2-2 in Torneo Federal A on October 15, 2022.

Goals: Mauro Gutiérrez (45'), R. Montenegro (48'), S. Parera (57' pen), Y. Gurnel (66').

The match was played at Estadio Centenario del Club Atlético Sarmiento in Resistencia, Provincia del Chaco.

Sarmiento Resistencia vs Def. de Pronunciamiento — Torneo Federal A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Torneo Federal A: Sarmiento Resistencia 2–2 Def. de Pronunciamiento