Def. de Pronunciamiento 1–2 Sarmiento Resistencia

Def. de Pronunciamiento

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Sarmiento Resistencia

H. Echague 8'

S. Parera 57', 37'

10/31/2021

Torneo Federal A · Group B - 30Estadio Delio Esteban Cardozo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Def. de Pronunciamiento42%

×Draw29%

Sarmiento Resistencia29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Def. de PronunciamientoExpected goals in this matchSarmiento Resistencia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.94

Def. de Pronunciamiento

1.21

Sarmiento Resistencia

0.94

Def. de Pronunciamiento creates 29% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 116 away

1.19

creates per match

0.86

1.02

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Def. de Pronunciamiento

1.19

Sarmiento Resistencia

0.86

allows per match

Def. de Pronunciamiento

1.02

Sarmiento Resistencia

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Def. de Pronunciamiento+0.00on par

Sarmiento Resistencia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Def. de Pronunciamiento ↓

Sarmiento Resistencia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Def. de Pronunciamiento or draw

71%

Def. de Pronunciamiento or Sarmiento Resistencia

71%

Draw or Sarmiento Resistencia

58%

Winning margin

Def. de Pronunciamiento wins by 2+

18%

Sarmiento Resistencia wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Def. de Pronunciamiento 1+ goals

70%

Def. de Pronunciamiento 2+ goals

34%

Def. de Pronunciamiento 3+ goals

12%

Sarmiento Resistencia 1+ goals

61%

Sarmiento Resistencia 2+ goals

24%

Sarmiento Resistencia 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Def. de Pronunciamiento (draw refunded)

60%

Sarmiento Resistencia (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Def. de Pronunciamiento at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.02 · 85 matches

Sarmiento Resistencia away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.24 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Def. de Pronunciamiento attack 1.19 + Sarmiento Resistencia defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.21

Sarmiento Resistencia attack 0.86 + Def. de Pronunciamiento defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Def. de Pronunciamiento scores more

42%

level

29%

Sarmiento Resistencia scores more

29%

Def. de Pronunciamiento at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Def. de Pronunciamiento will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

37'

57'

62'

62'

N. Rodríguez← W. Bravo

66'

R. Montenegro← J. Vargas

74'

K. Meyer← A. Rizzo

75'

C. Almirón← D. Ibáñez

89'

F. Leonetti← M. Villagrán

89'

F. Domínguez← L. Silba

Def.

Sarmiento

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: S. Chitero

62'▲L. Ilari←▼H. Echague

62'▲N. Rodríguez←▼W. Bravo

74'▲K. Meyer←▼A. Rizzo

89'▲F. Leonetti←▼M. Villagrán

Def. de Pronunciamiento substitutes

IlariRodríguezMeyerLeonetti

Manager: A. Damato

66'▲R. Montenegro←▼J. Vargas

75'▲C. Almirón←▼D. Ibáñez

89'▲F. Domínguez←▼L. Silba

Sarmiento Resistencia substitutes

MontenegroAlmirónDomínguez