Sarmiento Resistencia 2–1 CDJU Gualeguaychu

Sarmiento Resistencia

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

CDJU Gualeguaychu

F. Olego 86' (pen)

M. Martínez 40'

L. Larrea 50'

8/20/2022

Torneo Federal A · Group B - 25Estadio Centenario del Club Atlético Sarmiento

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Sarmiento Resistencia52%

×Draw27%

CDJU Gualeguaychu20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sarmiento ResistenciaExpected goals in this matchCDJU Gualeguaychu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.77

Sarmiento Resistencia

1.42

CDJU Gualeguaychu

0.77

Sarmiento Resistencia creates 84% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 56 away

1.25

creates per match

0.71

0.83

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Sarmiento Resistencia

1.25

CDJU Gualeguaychu

0.71

allows per match

Sarmiento Resistencia

0.83

CDJU Gualeguaychu

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sarmiento Resistencia+0.00on par

CDJU Gualeguaychu+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sarmiento Resistencia ↓

CDJU Gualeguaychu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Sarmiento Resistencia or draw

80%

Sarmiento Resistencia or CDJU Gualeguaychu

73%

Draw or CDJU Gualeguaychu

48%

Winning margin

Sarmiento Resistencia wins by 2+

26%

CDJU Gualeguaychu wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Sarmiento Resistencia 1+ goals

76%

Sarmiento Resistencia 2+ goals

41%

Sarmiento Resistencia 3+ goals

17%

CDJU Gualeguaychu 1+ goals

54%

CDJU Gualeguaychu 2+ goals

18%

CDJU Gualeguaychu 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Sarmiento Resistencia (draw refunded)

72%

CDJU Gualeguaychu (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sarmiento Resistencia at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.83 · 108 matches

CDJU Gualeguaychu away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.59 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sarmiento Resistencia attack 1.25 + CDJU Gualeguaychu defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.42

CDJU Gualeguaychu attack 0.71 + Sarmiento Resistencia defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Sarmiento Resistencia scores more

52%

level

27%

CDJU Gualeguaychu scores more

20%

Sarmiento Resistencia at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Sarmiento Resistencia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'

M. Martínez

50'

L. Larrea

55'

I. Schell← L. Doello

60'

M. Mansilla← R. López

60'

A. Araujo← M. Martínez

70'

S. Olano← G. Saucedo

75'

M. Montejano← M. Brito

86'

F. OlegoPenalty

88'

S. Sagarzazu← I. Roldán

90+1'

D. Hernandez

90'

F. Pereyra← N. Heiz

90'

G. Cervera← G. Palacios

90'

L. Fiorotto← J. Marital

Sarmiento

CDJU

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: L. Fernández

60'▲M. Mansilla←▼R. López

60'▲A. Araujo←▼M. Martínez

75'▲M. Montejano←▼M. Brito

88'▲S. Sagarzazu←▼I. Roldán

Sarmiento Resistencia substitutes

MansillaAraujoMontejanoSagarzazu

Manager: M. Minich

55'▲I. Schell←▼L. Doello

70'▲S. Olano←▼G. Saucedo

90'▲F. Pereyra←▼N. Heiz

90'▲G. Cervera←▼G. Palacios

90'▲L. Fiorotto←▼J. Marital

CDJU Gualeguaychu substitutes

SchellOlanoPereyraCerveraFiorotto

Match Recap: Sarmiento Resistencia vs CDJU Gualeguaychu

Sarmiento Resistencia beat CDJU Gualeguaychu 2-1 in Torneo Federal A on August 20, 2022.

Goals: M. Martínez (40'), L. Larrea (50'), F. Olego (86' pen).

The match was played at Estadio Centenario del Club Atlético Sarmiento in Resistencia, Provincia del Chaco.

Sarmiento Resistencia vs CDJU Gualeguaychu — Torneo Federal A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Sarmiento Resistencia vs CDJU Gualeguaychu