CDJU Gualeguaychu 1–0 Sarmiento Resistencia

CDJU Gualeguaychu

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Sarmiento Resistencia

F. Pereyra 18'

5/11/2022

Torneo Federal A · Group B - 8Estadio Luis Delfino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

CDJU Gualeguaychu41%

×Draw29%

Sarmiento Resistencia30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CDJU GualeguaychuExpected goals in this matchSarmiento Resistencia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.98

CDJU Gualeguaychu

1.21

Sarmiento Resistencia

0.98

CDJU Gualeguaychu creates 23% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 114 away

1.19

creates per match

0.86

1.09

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

CDJU Gualeguaychu

1.19

Sarmiento Resistencia

0.86

allows per match

CDJU Gualeguaychu

1.09

Sarmiento Resistencia

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CDJU Gualeguaychu+0.00on par

Sarmiento Resistencia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CDJU Gualeguaychu ↓

Sarmiento Resistencia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

CDJU Gualeguaychu or draw

70%

CDJU Gualeguaychu or Sarmiento Resistencia

71%

Draw or Sarmiento Resistencia

59%

Winning margin

CDJU Gualeguaychu wins by 2+

18%

Sarmiento Resistencia wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

CDJU Gualeguaychu 1+ goals

70%

CDJU Gualeguaychu 2+ goals

34%

CDJU Gualeguaychu 3+ goals

12%

Sarmiento Resistencia 1+ goals

62%

Sarmiento Resistencia 2+ goals

26%

Sarmiento Resistencia 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

CDJU Gualeguaychu (draw refunded)

58%

Sarmiento Resistencia (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CDJU Gualeguaychu at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.09 · 54 matches

Sarmiento Resistencia away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.22 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CDJU Gualeguaychu attack 1.19 + Sarmiento Resistencia defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.21

Sarmiento Resistencia attack 0.86 + CDJU Gualeguaychu defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

CDJU Gualeguaychu scores more

41%

level

29%

Sarmiento Resistencia scores more

30%

CDJU Gualeguaychu at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "CDJU Gualeguaychu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

F. Pereyra

57'

L. Fiorotto← N. Heiz

59'

J. Rodríguez← D. Ibáñez

59'

G. González← G. Cañete

59'

R. Montenegro← S. Sagarzazu

67'

G. Saucedo← R. Giménez

67'

S. Benítez← I. Schell

72'

R. Arenas← F. Pereyra

72'

C. Curuchet← S. Olano

80'

F. Pérez← I. Roldán

CDJU

Sarmiento

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: C. Macchi

57'▲L. Fiorotto←▼N. Heiz

67'▲G. Saucedo←▼R. Giménez

67'▲S. Benítez←▼I. Schell

72'▲R. Arenas←▼F. Pereyra

72'▲C. Curuchet←▼S. Olano

CDJU Gualeguaychu substitutes

FiorottoSaucedoBenítezArenasCuruchet

Manager: L. Fernández

59'▲J. Rodríguez←▼D. Ibáñez

59'▲G. González←▼G. Cañete

59'▲R. Montenegro←▼S. Sagarzazu

80'▲F. Pérez←▼I. Roldán

Sarmiento Resistencia substitutes

RodríguezGonzálezMontenegroPérez