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Sarmiento Resistencia vs Atletico Parana — Torneo Federal A 2018

Sarmiento Resistencia
Sarmiento Resistencia
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Atletico Parana
Atletico Parana
4/9/2022Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Group B - 3Estadio Centenario del Club Atlético Sarmiento

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Sarmiento Resistencia53%
×Draw27%
Atletico Parana20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sarmiento Resistencia
1.43
Atletico Parana
0.76

Sarmiento Resistencia creates 88% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 28 away

creates per match

Sarmiento Resistencia
1.25
Atletico Parana
0.68

allows per match

Sarmiento Resistencia
0.83
Atletico Parana
1.61

finishing

Sarmiento Resistencia+0.00on par
Atletico Parana+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sarmiento Resistencia ↓

Atletico Parana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Sarmiento Resistencia or draw
80%
Sarmiento Resistencia or Atletico Parana
73%
Draw or Atletico Parana
47%

Winning margin

Sarmiento Resistencia wins by 2+
27%
Atletico Parana wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Sarmiento Resistencia 1+ goals
76%
Sarmiento Resistencia 2+ goals
42%
Sarmiento Resistencia 3+ goals
17%
Atletico Parana 1+ goals
53%
Atletico Parana 2+ goals
18%
Atletico Parana 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Sarmiento Resistencia (draw refunded)
73%
Atletico Parana (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sarmiento Resistencia at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.83 · 108 matches

Atletico Parana away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.61 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sarmiento Resistencia attack 1.25 + Atletico Parana defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.43

Atletico Parana attack 0.68 + Sarmiento Resistencia defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Sarmiento Resistencia scores more
53%
level
27%
Atletico Parana scores more
20%

Sarmiento Resistencia at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Sarmiento Resistencia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sarmiento Resistencia vs Atletico Parana

Sarmiento Resistencia and Atletico Parana drew 0-0 in Torneo Federal A on April 9, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Centenario del Club Atlético Sarmiento in Resistencia, Provincia del Chaco.