Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Atletico Parana vs Sarmiento Resistencia — Torneo Federal A 2018

Atletico Parana
Atletico Parana
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Sarmiento Resistencia
Sarmiento Resistencia
7/20/2022Torneo Federal ATorneo Federal A · Group B - 20Estadio Pedro Mutio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Atletico Parana36%
×Draw29%
Sarmiento Resistencia35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Parana
1.11
Sarmiento Resistencia
1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 114 away

creates per match

Atletico Parana
1.00
Sarmiento Resistencia
0.86

allows per match

Atletico Parana
1.31
Sarmiento Resistencia
1.22

finishing

Atletico Parana+0.00on par
Sarmiento Resistencia+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Parana ↓

Sarmiento Resistencia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Atletico Parana or draw
65%
Atletico Parana or Sarmiento Resistencia
71%
Draw or Sarmiento Resistencia
64%

Winning margin

Atletico Parana wins by 2+
15%
Sarmiento Resistencia wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Atletico Parana 1+ goals
67%
Atletico Parana 2+ goals
30%
Atletico Parana 3+ goals
10%
Sarmiento Resistencia 1+ goals
66%
Sarmiento Resistencia 2+ goals
29%
Sarmiento Resistencia 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Atletico Parana (draw refunded)
51%
Sarmiento Resistencia (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Parana at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.31 · 29 matches

Sarmiento Resistencia away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.22 · 114 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Parana attack 1.00 + Sarmiento Resistencia defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.11

Sarmiento Resistencia attack 0.86 + Atletico Parana defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Atletico Parana scores more
36%
level
29%
Sarmiento Resistencia scores more
35%

Atletico Parana at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Atletico Parana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Torneo Federal A: Atletico Parana 0–4 Sarmiento Resistencia

Sarmiento Resistencia beat Atletico Parana 4-0 in Torneo Federal A on July 20, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Pedro Mutio in Paraná, Provincia de Entre Ríos.