Sarmiento Junin 2–0 Argentinos JRS: Result & Stats

Sarmiento Junin

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Argentinos JRS

L. Melano 90+1'

M. Mónaco 50'

4/8/2023

Liga Profesional Argentina · Round 10Estadio Eva Perón de Junín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Sarmiento Junin36%

×Draw31%

Argentinos JRS34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sarmiento JuninExpected goals in this matchArgentinos JRS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

0.99

Sarmiento Junin

1.03

Argentinos JRS

0.99

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 13 away

0.94

creates per match

1.03

0.96

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Sarmiento Junin

0.94

Argentinos JRS

1.03

allows per match

Sarmiento Junin

0.96

Argentinos JRS

1.13

-0.06on par

finishing

-0.41scores less than expected

finishing

Sarmiento Junin-0.06on par

Argentinos JRS-0.41scores less

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sarmiento Junin ↓

Argentinos JRS →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–113%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Sarmiento Junin or draw

66%

Sarmiento Junin or Argentinos JRS

69%

Draw or Argentinos JRS

64%

Winning margin

Sarmiento Junin wins by 2+

14%

Argentinos JRS wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Sarmiento Junin 1+ goals

64%

Sarmiento Junin 2+ goals

28%

Sarmiento Junin 3+ goals

9%

Argentinos JRS 1+ goals

63%

Argentinos JRS 2+ goals

26%

Argentinos JRS 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Sarmiento Junin (draw refunded)

52%

Argentinos JRS (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sarmiento Junin at home — creates 0.94, concedes 0.96 · 16 matches

Argentinos JRS away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.13 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sarmiento Junin attack 0.94 + Argentinos JRS defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.03

Argentinos JRS attack 1.03 + Sarmiento Junin defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Sarmiento Junin scores more

36%

level

31%

Argentinos JRS scores more

34%

Sarmiento Junin at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Sarmiento Junin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

L. Melano

Sarmiento Junin · F

8.3

Match Events

37'

Thiago Nuss

38'

Lisandro López

46'

F. Domínguez← T. Nuss

50'

M. Mónaco↳ L. Gondou

58'

S. Montiel← M. Bíttolo

58'

61'

70'

72'

72'

75'

H. Mancilla← F. Martínez

75'

80'

81'

86'

90+1'

L. Melano↳ A. Donatti

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SarmientoArgentinos

Overview

27%Possession73%

17Total Shots14

7Corners5

18Fouls11

Shots

17Total Shots14

6On Target3

8Off Target9

3Blocked2

12Inside Box5

5Outside Box9

Passing

27%Possession73%

199Total Passes553

101Accurate Passes457

51%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

18Fouls11

3Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1

Liga Profesional Argentina: Sarmiento Junin 2–0 Argentinos JRS

Sarmiento Junin beat Argentinos JRS 2-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on April 8, 2023.

Goals: M. Mónaco (50'), L. Melano (90+1').

Argentinos JRS controlled possession (73%) and registered 14 shots to 17.

The match was played at Estadio Eva Perón de Junín in Junín, Provincia de Buenos Aires.

Sarmiento Junin vs Argentinos JRS — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Liga Profesional Argentina: Sarmiento Junin 2–0 Argentinos JRS