Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sarmiento Junin vs Argentinos JRS — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Sarmiento Junin
Sarmiento Junin
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Argentinos JRS
Argentinos JRS
L. López 37'
6/11/2022Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 2Estadio Eva Perón de Junín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Sarmiento Junin36%
×Draw30%
Argentinos JRS35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sarmiento Junin
1.06
Argentinos JRS
1.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 13 away

creates per match

Sarmiento Junin
1.00
Argentinos JRS
1.03

allows per match

Sarmiento Junin
1.06
Argentinos JRS
1.13

finishing

Sarmiento Junin-0.12scores less
Argentinos JRS-0.41scores less

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sarmiento Junin ↓

Argentinos JRS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Sarmiento Junin or draw
65%
Sarmiento Junin or Argentinos JRS
70%
Draw or Argentinos JRS
64%

Winning margin

Sarmiento Junin wins by 2+
14%
Argentinos JRS wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Sarmiento Junin 1+ goals
65%
Sarmiento Junin 2+ goals
29%
Sarmiento Junin 3+ goals
9%
Argentinos JRS 1+ goals
65%
Argentinos JRS 2+ goals
28%
Argentinos JRS 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sarmiento Junin (draw refunded)
51%
Argentinos JRS (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sarmiento Junin at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

Argentinos JRS away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.13 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sarmiento Junin attack 1.00 + Argentinos JRS defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.06

Argentinos JRS attack 1.03 + Sarmiento Junin defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Sarmiento Junin scores more
36%
level
30%
Argentinos JRS scores more
35%

Sarmiento Junin at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Sarmiento Junin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23
F. RasmussenSarmiento JuninSarmiento Junin · D
7.5

Match Events

37'
L. López↳ J. Torres
46'
D. Zalazar← M. Bíttolo
46'
M. Coronel← G. Carabajal
54'
Lucas Castro
56'
Thiago Nuss
58'
J. Herrera← T. Nuss
59'
H. Mancilla← E. Méndez
62'
G. Bettini← J. Rosso
70'
J. Brea← S. Quiroga
70'
L. Gondou← L. López
71'
Manuel García← L. Castro
72'
L. Ovando← M. Galarza
80'
Harrinson Mancilla
81'
L. Gómez← L. Sánchez
89'
Julián Brea

Possession

28%Sarmiento

Shots

8Sarmiento

Pass accuracy

37%Sarmiento

Statistics

SarmientoArgentinos
Overview
28%Possession72%
8Total Shots17
2Corners7
17Fouls9
Shots
8Total Shots17
2On Target3
5Off Target10
1Blocked4
3Inside Box8
5Outside Box9
Passing
28%Possession72%
207Total Passes543
98Accurate Passes435
47%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
17Fouls9
3Yellow Cards1
1Offsides0

Match Recap: Sarmiento Junin vs Argentinos JRS

Sarmiento Junin beat Argentinos JRS 1-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on June 11, 2022.

Goals: L. López (37').

Argentinos JRS controlled possession (72%) and registered 17 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estadio Eva Perón de Junín in Junín, Provincia de Buenos Aires.