Sarasota Paradise 1–1 Pinellas County

Sarasota Paradise

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Pinellas County

5/17/2025

USL League Two · Southern Conference - 2Premier Sports Campus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Sarasota Paradise48%

×Draw24%

Pinellas County28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sarasota ParadiseExpected goals in this matchPinellas County

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.22

Sarasota Paradise

1.67

Pinellas County

1.22

Sarasota Paradise creates 37% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

2.00

creates per match

2.00

0.44

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Sarasota Paradise

2.00

Pinellas County

2.00

allows per match

Sarasota Paradise

0.44

Pinellas County

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sarasota Paradise+0.00on par

Pinellas County+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sarasota Paradise ↓

Pinellas County →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Sarasota Paradise or draw

72%

Sarasota Paradise or Pinellas County

76%

Draw or Pinellas County

52%

Winning margin

Sarasota Paradise wins by 2+

25%

Pinellas County wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Sarasota Paradise 1+ goals

81%

Sarasota Paradise 2+ goals

50%

Sarasota Paradise 3+ goals

23%

Pinellas County 1+ goals

70%

Pinellas County 2+ goals

34%

Pinellas County 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Sarasota Paradise (draw refunded)

63%

Pinellas County (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sarasota Paradise at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.44 · 9 matches

Pinellas County away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sarasota Paradise attack 2.00 + Pinellas County defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

Pinellas County attack 2.00 + Sarasota Paradise defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sarasota Paradise scores more

48%

level

24%

Pinellas County scores more

28%

Sarasota Paradise at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sarasota Paradise will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff