Pinellas County vs Sarasota Paradise — USL League Two 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 8+ matches
Pinellas County26%
Sarasota Paradise54%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Sarasota Paradise creates 46% more chances
Season form · 11 home / 8 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over78
- Under22
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes75
- No25
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Pinellas County ↓
Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Pinellas County at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches
Sarasota Paradise away — creates 3.50, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Pinellas County attack 2.27 + Sarasota Paradise defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.70
Sarasota Paradise attack 3.50 + Pinellas County defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 2.48
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 54%?"
Sarasota Paradise at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 54% does not mean "Sarasota Paradise will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Pinellas County host Sarasota Paradise on Saturday, 13 July 2024 at 23:00. The match is part of the USL League Two 2026/2027 season.
Pinellas County 0 – 1 Sarasota Paradise
Sarasota Paradise beat Pinellas County 1-0 in USL League Two on July 13, 2024.
The match was played at St. Petersburg High School in St. Petersburg, Florida.