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Sarasota Paradise vs Kings Hammer Sun City — USL League Two 2026

Sarasota Paradise
Sarasota Paradise
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kings Hammer Sun City
Kings Hammer Sun City
6/21/2025USL League TwoUSL League Two · Southern Conference - 14Premier Sports Campus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sarasota Paradise62%
×Draw23%
Kings Hammer Sun City15%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sarasota Paradise
1.75
Kings Hammer Sun City
0.72

Sarasota Paradise creates 143% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 6 away

creates per match

Sarasota Paradise
2.00
Kings Hammer Sun City
1.00

allows per match

Sarasota Paradise
0.44
Kings Hammer Sun City
1.50

finishing

Sarasota Paradise+0.00on par
Kings Hammer Sun City+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sarasota Paradise ↓

Kings Hammer Sun City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Sarasota Paradise or draw
85%
Sarasota Paradise or Kings Hammer Sun City
77%
Draw or Kings Hammer Sun City
38%

Winning margin

Sarasota Paradise wins by 2+
36%
Kings Hammer Sun City wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Sarasota Paradise 1+ goals
83%
Sarasota Paradise 2+ goals
52%
Sarasota Paradise 3+ goals
25%
Kings Hammer Sun City 1+ goals
51%
Kings Hammer Sun City 2+ goals
16%
Kings Hammer Sun City 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Sarasota Paradise (draw refunded)
81%
Kings Hammer Sun City (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sarasota Paradise at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.44 · 9 matches

Kings Hammer Sun City away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sarasota Paradise attack 2.00 + Kings Hammer Sun City defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.75

Kings Hammer Sun City attack 1.00 + Sarasota Paradise defence 0.44 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Sarasota Paradise scores more
62%
level
23%
Kings Hammer Sun City scores more
15%

Sarasota Paradise at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Sarasota Paradise will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sarasota Paradise vs Kings Hammer Sun City

Sarasota Paradise beat Kings Hammer Sun City 1-0 in USL League Two on June 21, 2025.

The match was played at Premier Sports Campus in Bradenton, Florida.