Kings Hammer Sun City vs Sarasota Paradise — USL League Two 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 6+ matches
Kings Hammer Sun City15%
Sarasota Paradise68%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Sarasota Paradise creates 124% more chances
Season form · 6 home / 8 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over71
- Under29
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes63
- No37
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Kings Hammer Sun City ↓
Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Kings Hammer Sun City at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches
Sarasota Paradise away — creates 3.50, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Kings Hammer Sun City attack 1.17 + Sarasota Paradise defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.15
Sarasota Paradise attack 3.50 + Kings Hammer Sun City defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.58
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 68%?"
Sarasota Paradise at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 68% does not mean "Sarasota Paradise will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Kings Hammer Sun City host Sarasota Paradise on Wednesday, 28 May 2025 at 23:00. The match is part of the USL League Two 2026/2027 season.
USL League Two: Kings Hammer Sun City 0–1 Sarasota Paradise
Sarasota Paradise beat Kings Hammer Sun City 1-0 in USL League Two on May 28, 2025.
The match was played at Lake Myrtle Sports Park in Auburndale, Florida.