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Saransk vs Rodina Moskva — Second League - Group 3 2020

Saransk
Saransk
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
Rodina Moskva
Rodina Moskva
9/4/2021Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 8Mordovia Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Saransk28%
×Draw27%
Rodina Moskva45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saransk
1.06
Rodina Moskva
1.41

Rodina Moskva creates 33% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 16 away

creates per match

Saransk
1.25
Rodina Moskva
1.81

allows per match

Saransk
1.00
Rodina Moskva
0.88

finishing

Saransk+0.00on par
Rodina Moskva+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saransk ↓

Rodina Moskva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Saransk or draw
55%
Saransk or Rodina Moskva
73%
Draw or Rodina Moskva
72%

Winning margin

Saransk wins by 2+
11%
Rodina Moskva wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Saransk 1+ goals
65%
Saransk 2+ goals
29%
Saransk 3+ goals
9%
Rodina Moskva 1+ goals
76%
Rodina Moskva 2+ goals
41%
Rodina Moskva 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Saransk (draw refunded)
39%
Rodina Moskva (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saransk at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

Rodina Moskva away — creates 1.81, concedes 0.88 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saransk attack 1.25 + Rodina Moskva defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.06

Rodina Moskva attack 1.81 + Saransk defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Saransk scores more
28%
level
27%
Rodina Moskva scores more
45%

Rodina Moskva at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Rodina Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 3: Saransk 0–5 Rodina Moskva

Rodina Moskva beat Saransk 5-0 in Second League - Group 3 on September 4, 2021.

The match was played at Mordovia Arena in Saransk.