Rodina Moskva 3–1 Saransk: Result & Stats

Rodina Moskva

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Saransk

10/25/2021

Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 18Spartakovets imeni N.P. Starostina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Rodina Moskva53%

×Draw20%

Saransk27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rodina MoskvaExpected goals in this matchSaransk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

1.56

Rodina Moskva

2.25

Saransk

1.56

Rodina Moskva creates 44% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 16 away

3.13

creates per match

2.31

0.81

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Rodina Moskva

3.13

Saransk

2.31

allows per match

Rodina Moskva

0.81

Saransk

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rodina Moskva+0.00on par

Saransk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rodina Moskva ↓

Saransk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Rodina Moskva or draw

73%

Rodina Moskva or Saransk

80%

Draw or Saransk

47%

Winning margin

Rodina Moskva wins by 2+

32%

Saransk wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Rodina Moskva 1+ goals

89%

Rodina Moskva 2+ goals

65%

Rodina Moskva 3+ goals

39%

Saransk 1+ goals

79%

Saransk 2+ goals

46%

Saransk 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Rodina Moskva (draw refunded)

67%

Saransk (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rodina Moskva at home — creates 3.13, concedes 0.81 · 16 matches

Saransk away — creates 2.31, concedes 1.38 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rodina Moskva attack 3.13 + Saransk defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 2.25

Saransk attack 2.31 + Rodina Moskva defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Rodina Moskva scores more

53%

level

20%

Saransk scores more

27%

Rodina Moskva at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Rodina Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff