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Saransk vs Metallurg Vidnoye — Second League - Group 3 2020

Saransk
Saransk
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Metallurg Vidnoye
Metallurg Vidnoye
9/14/2021Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 10Mordovia Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Saransk64%
×Draw20%
Metallurg Vidnoye15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saransk
2.06
Metallurg Vidnoye
0.89

Saransk creates 131% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 30 away

creates per match

Saransk
1.25
Metallurg Vidnoye
0.77

allows per match

Saransk
1.00
Metallurg Vidnoye
2.87

finishing

Saransk+0.00on par
Metallurg Vidnoye+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saransk ↓

Metallurg Vidnoye →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Saransk or draw
85%
Saransk or Metallurg Vidnoye
80%
Draw or Metallurg Vidnoye
36%

Winning margin

Saransk wins by 2+
40%
Metallurg Vidnoye wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Saransk 1+ goals
87%
Saransk 2+ goals
61%
Saransk 3+ goals
34%
Metallurg Vidnoye 1+ goals
59%
Metallurg Vidnoye 2+ goals
22%
Metallurg Vidnoye 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Saransk (draw refunded)
81%
Metallurg Vidnoye (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saransk at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

Metallurg Vidnoye away — creates 0.77, concedes 2.87 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saransk attack 1.25 + Metallurg Vidnoye defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.06

Metallurg Vidnoye attack 0.77 + Saransk defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Saransk scores more
64%
level
20%
Metallurg Vidnoye scores more
15%

Saransk at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Saransk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Saransk vs Metallurg Vidnoye

Saransk beat Metallurg Vidnoye 3-0 in Second League - Group 3 on September 14, 2021.

The match was played at Mordovia Arena in Saransk.