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Metallurg Vidnoye vs Saransk — Second League - Group 3 2020

Metallurg Vidnoye
Metallurg Vidnoye
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Saransk
Saransk
11/4/2021Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 20Stadion Metallurg Vidnoe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Metallurg Vidnoye24%
×Draw20%
Saransk56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Metallurg Vidnoye
1.46
Saransk
2.32

Saransk creates 59% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 16 away

creates per match

Metallurg Vidnoye
1.53
Saransk
2.31

allows per match

Metallurg Vidnoye
2.33
Saransk
1.38

finishing

Metallurg Vidnoye+0.00on par
Saransk+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metallurg Vidnoye ↓

Saransk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Metallurg Vidnoye or draw
44%
Metallurg Vidnoye or Saransk
80%
Draw or Saransk
76%

Winning margin

Metallurg Vidnoye wins by 2+
10%
Saransk wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Metallurg Vidnoye 1+ goals
77%
Metallurg Vidnoye 2+ goals
43%
Metallurg Vidnoye 3+ goals
18%
Saransk 1+ goals
90%
Saransk 2+ goals
67%
Saransk 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Metallurg Vidnoye (draw refunded)
30%
Saransk (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metallurg Vidnoye at home — creates 1.53, concedes 2.33 · 30 matches

Saransk away — creates 2.31, concedes 1.38 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metallurg Vidnoye attack 1.53 + Saransk defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.46

Saransk attack 2.31 + Metallurg Vidnoye defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Metallurg Vidnoye scores more
24%
level
20%
Saransk scores more
56%

Saransk at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Saransk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 3: Metallurg Vidnoye 1–3 Saransk

Saransk beat Metallurg Vidnoye 3-1 in Second League - Group 3 on November 4, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Metallurg Vidnoe in Vidnoye.