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Saransk vs Khimki II — Second League - Group 3 2020

Saransk
Saransk
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Khimki II
Khimki II
7/18/2021Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 1Mordovia Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Saransk46%
×Draw25%
Khimki II29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saransk
1.54
Khimki II
1.18

Saransk creates 31% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 74 away

creates per match

Saransk
1.25
Khimki II
1.36

allows per match

Saransk
1.00
Khimki II
1.82

finishing

Saransk+0.00on par
Khimki II+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saransk ↓

Khimki II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Saransk or draw
71%
Saransk or Khimki II
75%
Draw or Khimki II
54%

Winning margin

Saransk wins by 2+
23%
Khimki II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Saransk 1+ goals
79%
Saransk 2+ goals
45%
Saransk 3+ goals
20%
Khimki II 1+ goals
69%
Khimki II 2+ goals
33%
Khimki II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Saransk (draw refunded)
61%
Khimki II (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saransk at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

Khimki II away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.82 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saransk attack 1.25 + Khimki II defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.54

Khimki II attack 1.36 + Saransk defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Saransk scores more
46%
level
25%
Khimki II scores more
29%

Saransk at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Saransk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Saransk vs Khimki II

Saransk beat Khimki II 1-0 in Second League - Group 3 on July 18, 2021.

The match was played at Mordovia Arena in Saransk.