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Khimki II vs Saransk — Second League - Group 3 2020

Khimki II
Khimki II
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Saransk
Saransk
11/14/2021Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 22Stadion Novye Khimki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Khimki II31%
×Draw23%
Saransk46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khimki II
1.42
Saransk
1.79

Saransk creates 26% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 16 away

creates per match

Khimki II
1.46
Saransk
2.31

allows per match

Khimki II
1.26
Saransk
1.38

finishing

Khimki II+0.00on par
Saransk+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khimki II ↓

Saransk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Khimki II or draw
54%
Khimki II or Saransk
77%
Draw or Saransk
69%

Winning margin

Khimki II wins by 2+
14%
Saransk wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Khimki II 1+ goals
76%
Khimki II 2+ goals
41%
Khimki II 3+ goals
17%
Saransk 1+ goals
83%
Saransk 2+ goals
53%
Saransk 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Khimki II (draw refunded)
40%
Saransk (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khimki II at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.26 · 76 matches

Saransk away — creates 2.31, concedes 1.38 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khimki II attack 1.46 + Saransk defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.42

Saransk attack 2.31 + Khimki II defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Khimki II scores more
31%
level
23%
Saransk scores more
46%

Saransk at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Saransk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Khimki II vs Saransk

Saransk beat Khimki II 2-1 in Second League - Group 3 on November 14, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Novye Khimki in Khimki.