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Sarıyer vs Esenler Erokspor — 1. Lig 2018

Sarıyer
Sarıyer
Preview
17:00
Esenler Erokspor
Esenler Erokspor
1/17/20271. Lig1. Lig · Round 21Yusuf Ziya Onis
38%
Sarıyer
model favours
38%26%36%

Sarıyer win just 25% against the top half (vs 56% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
under 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Sarıyer38%
×Draw26%
Esenler Erokspor36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sarıyer
1.32
Esenler Erokspor
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 38 away

creates per match

Sarıyer
1.47
Esenler Erokspor
1.71

allows per match

Sarıyer
0.84
Esenler Erokspor
1.18

finishing

Sarıyer+0.00on par
Esenler Erokspor+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sarıyer ↓

Esenler Erokspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Sarıyer or draw
64%
Sarıyer or Esenler Erokspor
74%
Draw or Esenler Erokspor
62%

Winning margin

Sarıyer wins by 2+
17%
Esenler Erokspor wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Sarıyer 1+ goals
73%
Sarıyer 2+ goals
38%
Sarıyer 3+ goals
15%
Esenler Erokspor 1+ goals
72%
Esenler Erokspor 2+ goals
36%
Esenler Erokspor 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Sarıyer (draw refunded)
52%
Esenler Erokspor (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sarıyer at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.84 · 19 matches

Esenler Erokspor away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.18 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sarıyer attack 1.47 + Esenler Erokspor defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.32

Esenler Erokspor attack 1.71 + Sarıyer defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sarıyer scores more
38%
level
26%
Esenler Erokspor scores more
36%

Sarıyer at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sarıyer will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Sarıyer
WWLWD
Erokspor
LDLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sarıyer face Esenler Erokspor (1. Lig)

1. Lig returns with Sarıyer hosting Esenler Erokspor. Match starts January 17, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Sarıyer host Esenler Erokspor at Yusuf Ziya Onis.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.