Sarıyer 1–0 Esenler Erokspor: Result & Stats

Sarıyer

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Esenler Erokspor

M. Silva 75'

4/26/2026

1. Lig · Round 37Yusuf Ziya Onis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Sarıyer38%

×Draw26%

Esenler Erokspor36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SarıyerExpected goals in this matchEsenler Erokspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.27

Sarıyer

1.32

Esenler Erokspor

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 38 away

1.47

creates per match

1.71

0.84

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Sarıyer

1.47

Esenler Erokspor

1.71

allows per match

Sarıyer

0.84

Esenler Erokspor

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sarıyer+0.00on par

Esenler Erokspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sarıyer ↓

Esenler Erokspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Sarıyer or draw

64%

Sarıyer or Esenler Erokspor

74%

Draw or Esenler Erokspor

62%

Winning margin

Sarıyer wins by 2+

17%

Esenler Erokspor wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Sarıyer 1+ goals

73%

Sarıyer 2+ goals

38%

Sarıyer 3+ goals

15%

Esenler Erokspor 1+ goals

72%

Esenler Erokspor 2+ goals

36%

Esenler Erokspor 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Sarıyer (draw refunded)

52%

Esenler Erokspor (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sarıyer at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.84 · 19 matches

Esenler Erokspor away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.18 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sarıyer attack 1.47 + Esenler Erokspor defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.32

Esenler Erokspor attack 1.71 + Sarıyer defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sarıyer scores more

38%

level

26%

Esenler Erokspor scores more

36%

Sarıyer at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sarıyer will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

88

M. Silva

Sarıyer · M

8.5

Match Events

28'

F. Nzaba← O. Ulas

41'

André PokoGoal cancelled

46'

E. Gedik← E. Korkmaz

63'

O. Kayode← H. Catakovic

63'

O. Beyaz← R. Niyaz

73'

Dimitri Cavaré

75'

M. Silva↳ E. Korkmazoglu

76'

A. Karaman← M. Okyar

78'

Hayrullah Bilazer

82'

Emeka Eze

84'

B. Kor← M. Camara

84'

O. Yilmaz← E. Eze

89'

90+6'

90+3'

90+6'

90'

F. Ozer← P. M. Dembele

90'

H. Traore← H. E. Yesilyurt

90+5'

O. Sol← M. Silva

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SarıyerEsenler

Overview

39%Possession61%

12Total Shots8

2.60Expected Goals (xG)0.26

7Corners4

14Fouls12

Shots

12Total Shots8

4On Target1

4Off Target4

4Blocked3

9Inside Box3

3Outside Box5

Passing

39%Possession61%

299Total Passes482

234Accurate Passes430

78%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls12

4Yellow Cards3

0Offsides2