Esenler Erokspor 1–1 Sarıyer: Result & Stats

Esenler Erokspor

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Sarıyer

12/19/2025

1. Lig · Round 18Esenler Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Esenler Erokspor53%

×Draw25%

Sarıyer22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Esenler EroksporExpected goals in this matchSarıyer

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

0.96

Esenler Erokspor

1.62

Sarıyer

0.96

Esenler Erokspor creates 69% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 19 away

1.77

creates per match

0.84

1.08

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Esenler Erokspor

1.77

Sarıyer

0.84

allows per match

Esenler Erokspor

1.08

Sarıyer

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Esenler Erokspor+0.00on par

Sarıyer+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esenler Erokspor ↓

Sarıyer →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Esenler Erokspor or draw

78%

Esenler Erokspor or Sarıyer

75%

Draw or Sarıyer

47%

Winning margin

Esenler Erokspor wins by 2+

28%

Sarıyer wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Esenler Erokspor 1+ goals

80%

Esenler Erokspor 2+ goals

48%

Esenler Erokspor 3+ goals

22%

Sarıyer 1+ goals

62%

Sarıyer 2+ goals

25%

Sarıyer 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Esenler Erokspor (draw refunded)

70%

Sarıyer (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esenler Erokspor at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.08 · 39 matches

Sarıyer away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.47 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esenler Erokspor attack 1.77 + Sarıyer defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.62

Sarıyer attack 0.84 + Esenler Erokspor defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Esenler Erokspor scores more

53%

level

25%

Sarıyer scores more

22%

Esenler Erokspor at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Esenler Erokspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff