Sarıyer 0–2 Erzurumspor FK: Result & Stats | 1. Lig

Sarıyer

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Erzurumspor FK

8/29/2025

1. Lig · Round 4Esenyurt Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Sarıyer43%

×Draw28%

Erzurumspor FK29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SarıyerExpected goals in this matchErzurumspor FK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.00

Sarıyer

1.27

Erzurumspor FK

1.00

Sarıyer creates 27% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 110 away

1.47

creates per match

1.16

0.84

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Sarıyer

1.47

Erzurumspor FK

1.16

allows per match

Sarıyer

0.84

Erzurumspor FK

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sarıyer+0.00on par

Erzurumspor FK+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sarıyer ↓

Erzurumspor FK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Sarıyer or draw

71%

Sarıyer or Erzurumspor FK

72%

Draw or Erzurumspor FK

57%

Winning margin

Sarıyer wins by 2+

19%

Erzurumspor FK wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Sarıyer 1+ goals

72%

Sarıyer 2+ goals

36%

Sarıyer 3+ goals

14%

Erzurumspor FK 1+ goals

63%

Erzurumspor FK 2+ goals

26%

Erzurumspor FK 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Sarıyer (draw refunded)

59%

Erzurumspor FK (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sarıyer at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.84 · 19 matches

Erzurumspor FK away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.06 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sarıyer attack 1.47 + Erzurumspor FK defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.27

Erzurumspor FK attack 1.16 + Sarıyer defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sarıyer scores more

43%

level

28%

Erzurumspor FK scores more

29%

Sarıyer at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sarıyer will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff