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Erzurumspor FK vs Sarıyer — 1. Lig 2018

Erzurumspor FK
Erzurumspor FK
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sarıyer
Sarıyer
M. Akpinar 90'
B. Baiye 71'
S. Akgun 65'
E. Tozlu 1'
1/31/20261. Lig1. Lig · Round 23Kazım Karabekir Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Erzurumspor FK53%
×Draw26%
Sarıyer22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Erzurumspor FK
1.55
Sarıyer
0.89

Erzurumspor FK creates 74% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 19 away

creates per match

Erzurumspor FK
1.64
Sarıyer
0.84

allows per match

Erzurumspor FK
0.94
Sarıyer
1.47

finishing

Erzurumspor FK+0.00on par
Sarıyer+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Erzurumspor FK ↓

Sarıyer →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Erzurumspor FK or draw
78%
Erzurumspor FK or Sarıyer
74%
Draw or Sarıyer
47%

Winning margin

Erzurumspor FK wins by 2+
27%
Sarıyer wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Erzurumspor FK 1+ goals
79%
Erzurumspor FK 2+ goals
46%
Erzurumspor FK 3+ goals
20%
Sarıyer 1+ goals
59%
Sarıyer 2+ goals
22%
Sarıyer 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Erzurumspor FK (draw refunded)
71%
Sarıyer (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Erzurumspor FK at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.94 · 108 matches

Sarıyer away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.47 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Erzurumspor FK attack 1.64 + Sarıyer defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.55

Sarıyer attack 0.84 + Erzurumspor FK defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Erzurumspor FK scores more
53%
level
26%
Sarıyer scores more
22%

Erzurumspor FK at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Erzurumspor FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
Murat Cem AkpinarErzurumspor FKErzurumspor FK · M
8.3

Match Events

1'
E. Tozlu↳ B. Keser
56'
Hasan Yesilyurt
65'
S. Akgun↳ B. Keser
71'
B. Baiye↳ M. Rodriguez
90'
M. Akpinar

Possession

51%Erzurumspor

Shots

13Erzurumspor

Pass accuracy

51%Erzurumspor

Statistics

ErzurumsporSarıyer
Overview
51%Possession49%
13Total Shots6
2.61Expected Goals (xG)0.46
5Corners4
10Fouls9
Shots
13Total Shots6
7On Target2
4Off Target2
2Blocked2
11Inside Box3
2Outside Box3
Passing
51%Possession49%
494Total Passes464
438Accurate Passes394
89%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
10Fouls9
0Yellow Cards1
2Offsides3

Match Recap: Erzurumspor FK vs Sarıyer

Erzurumspor FK beat Sarıyer 4-0 in 1. Lig on January 31, 2026.

Goals: E. Tozlu (1'), S. Akgun (65'), B. Baiye (71'), M. Akpinar (90').

Erzurumspor FK controlled possession (51%) and registered 13 shots to 6.

The match was played at Kazım Karabekir Stadyumu in Erzurum.