Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

São Salvador vs Recreativo do Libolo — Girabola 2019

São Salvador
São Salvador
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Recreativo do Libolo
Recreativo do Libolo
3/30/2025GirabolaGirabola · Round 22Campo de Futebol Alvaro Buta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

São Salvador52%
×Draw28%
Recreativo do Libolo20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

São Salvador
1.36
Recreativo do Libolo
0.74

São Salvador creates 84% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 102 away

creates per match

São Salvador
1.41
Recreativo do Libolo
0.73

allows per match

São Salvador
0.75
Recreativo do Libolo
1.31

finishing

São Salvador+0.00on par
Recreativo do Libolo+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

São Salvador ↓

Recreativo do Libolo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

São Salvador or draw
80%
São Salvador or Recreativo do Libolo
72%
Draw or Recreativo do Libolo
48%

Winning margin

São Salvador wins by 2+
25%
Recreativo do Libolo wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

São Salvador 1+ goals
74%
São Salvador 2+ goals
39%
São Salvador 3+ goals
16%
Recreativo do Libolo 1+ goals
52%
Recreativo do Libolo 2+ goals
17%
Recreativo do Libolo 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

São Salvador (draw refunded)
72%
Recreativo do Libolo (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

São Salvador at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.75 · 44 matches

Recreativo do Libolo away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.31 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

São Salvador attack 1.41 + Recreativo do Libolo defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.36

Recreativo do Libolo attack 0.73 + São Salvador defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

São Salvador scores more
52%
level
28%
Recreativo do Libolo scores more
20%

São Salvador at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "São Salvador will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Girabola: São Salvador 0–1 Recreativo do Libolo

Recreativo do Libolo beat São Salvador 1-0 in Girabola on March 30, 2025.

The match was played at Campo de Futebol Alvaro Buta in M'banza-Kongo.