Recreativo do Libolo 0–0 São Salvador

Recreativo do Libolo

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

São Salvador

5/9/2026

Girabola · Round 27Estádio Mário Álvaro Pacheco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Recreativo do Libolo48%

×Draw30%

São Salvador22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Recreativo do LiboloExpected goals in this matchSão Salvador

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

0.73

Recreativo do Libolo

1.22

São Salvador

0.73

Recreativo do Libolo creates 67% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 44 away

1.10

creates per match

0.59

0.88

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Recreativo do Libolo

1.10

São Salvador

0.59

allows per match

Recreativo do Libolo

0.88

São Salvador

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Recreativo do Libolo+0.00on par

São Salvador+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Recreativo do Libolo ↓

São Salvador →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Recreativo do Libolo or draw

78%

Recreativo do Libolo or São Salvador

70%

Draw or São Salvador

52%

Winning margin

Recreativo do Libolo wins by 2+

21%

São Salvador wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Recreativo do Libolo 1+ goals

70%

Recreativo do Libolo 2+ goals

34%

Recreativo do Libolo 3+ goals

12%

São Salvador 1+ goals

52%

São Salvador 2+ goals

17%

São Salvador 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Recreativo do Libolo (draw refunded)

68%

São Salvador (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Recreativo do Libolo at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.88 · 109 matches

São Salvador away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.34 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Recreativo do Libolo attack 1.10 + São Salvador defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.22

São Salvador attack 0.59 + Recreativo do Libolo defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Recreativo do Libolo scores more

48%

level

30%

São Salvador scores more

22%

Recreativo do Libolo at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Recreativo do Libolo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff