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São Salvador vs Kabuscorp — Girabola 2019

São Salvador
São Salvador
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Kabuscorp
Kabuscorp
3/9/2025GirabolaGirabola · Round 20Campo de Futebol Alvaro Buta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

São Salvador47%
×Draw29%
Kabuscorp24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

São Salvador
1.28
Kabuscorp
0.84

São Salvador creates 52% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 70 away

creates per match

São Salvador
1.41
Kabuscorp
0.93

allows per match

São Salvador
0.75
Kabuscorp
1.16

finishing

São Salvador+0.00on par
Kabuscorp+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

São Salvador ↓

Kabuscorp →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

São Salvador or draw
76%
São Salvador or Kabuscorp
71%
Draw or Kabuscorp
53%

Winning margin

São Salvador wins by 2+
21%
Kabuscorp wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

São Salvador 1+ goals
72%
São Salvador 2+ goals
37%
São Salvador 3+ goals
14%
Kabuscorp 1+ goals
57%
Kabuscorp 2+ goals
21%
Kabuscorp 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

São Salvador (draw refunded)
66%
Kabuscorp (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

São Salvador at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.75 · 44 matches

Kabuscorp away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.16 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

São Salvador attack 1.41 + Kabuscorp defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.28

Kabuscorp attack 0.93 + São Salvador defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

São Salvador scores more
47%
level
29%
Kabuscorp scores more
24%

São Salvador at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "São Salvador will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Girabola: São Salvador 2–0 Kabuscorp

São Salvador beat Kabuscorp 2-0 in Girabola on March 9, 2025.

The match was played at Campo de Futebol Alvaro Buta in M'banza-Kongo.