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Kabuscorp vs São Salvador — Girabola 2019

Kabuscorp
Kabuscorp
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
São Salvador
São Salvador
5/4/2024GirabolaGirabola · Round 24Estádio Municipal dos Coqueiros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Kabuscorp51%
×Draw29%
São Salvador21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kabuscorp
1.31
São Salvador
0.72

Kabuscorp creates 82% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 44 away

creates per match

Kabuscorp
1.29
São Salvador
0.59

allows per match

Kabuscorp
0.85
São Salvador
1.34

finishing

Kabuscorp+0.00on par
São Salvador+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kabuscorp ↓

São Salvador →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Kabuscorp or draw
79%
Kabuscorp or São Salvador
71%
Draw or São Salvador
49%

Winning margin

Kabuscorp wins by 2+
24%
São Salvador wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Kabuscorp 1+ goals
73%
Kabuscorp 2+ goals
38%
Kabuscorp 3+ goals
14%
São Salvador 1+ goals
51%
São Salvador 2+ goals
16%
São Salvador 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Kabuscorp (draw refunded)
71%
São Salvador (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kabuscorp at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.85 · 72 matches

São Salvador away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.34 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kabuscorp attack 1.29 + São Salvador defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.31

São Salvador attack 0.59 + Kabuscorp defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Kabuscorp scores more
51%
level
29%
São Salvador scores more
21%

Kabuscorp at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Kabuscorp will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Girabola: Kabuscorp 3–0 São Salvador

Kabuscorp beat São Salvador 3-0 in Girabola on May 4, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal dos Coqueiros in Luanda.