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São Salvador vs Isaac de Benguela — Girabola 2019

São Salvador
São Salvador
FT
5 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Isaac de Benguela
Isaac de Benguela
Sandro 90+4', 74'
Mbape 90+2'
J. De Oliveira 64'
Gui Matos 42'
Walter 15'
5/25/2025GirabolaGirabola · Round 30Campo de Futebol Alvaro Buta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

São Salvador57%
×Draw25%
Isaac de Benguela18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

São Salvador
1.60
Isaac de Benguela
0.77

São Salvador creates 108% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 29 away

creates per match

São Salvador
1.41
Isaac de Benguela
0.79

allows per match

São Salvador
0.75
Isaac de Benguela
1.79

finishing

São Salvador+0.00on par
Isaac de Benguela+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

São Salvador ↓

Isaac de Benguela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

São Salvador or draw
82%
São Salvador or Isaac de Benguela
75%
Draw or Isaac de Benguela
43%

Winning margin

São Salvador wins by 2+
31%
Isaac de Benguela wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

São Salvador 1+ goals
80%
São Salvador 2+ goals
47%
São Salvador 3+ goals
22%
Isaac de Benguela 1+ goals
54%
Isaac de Benguela 2+ goals
18%
Isaac de Benguela 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

São Salvador (draw refunded)
76%
Isaac de Benguela (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

São Salvador at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.75 · 44 matches

Isaac de Benguela away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.79 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

São Salvador attack 1.41 + Isaac de Benguela defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.60

Isaac de Benguela attack 0.79 + São Salvador defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

São Salvador scores more
57%
level
25%
Isaac de Benguela scores more
18%

São Salvador at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "São Salvador will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
Walter
42'
Gui Matos
64'
J. De Oliveira
74'
Sandro
90+2'
Mbape
90+4'
Sandro

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Girabola: São Salvador 5–1 Isaac de Benguela

São Salvador beat Isaac de Benguela 5-1 in Girabola on May 25, 2025.

Goals: Walter (15'), Gui Matos (42'), J. De Oliveira (64'), Sandro (74', 90+4'), Mbape (90+2').

The match was played at Campo de Futebol Alvaro Buta in M'banza-Kongo.