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Isaac de Benguela vs São Salvador — Girabola 2019

Isaac de Benguela
Isaac de Benguela
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
São Salvador
São Salvador
Unknown 52'
Kimuanga 87'
Lito 42'
12/21/2024GirabolaGirabola · Round 15Estádio de São Filipe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Isaac de Benguela37%
×Draw32%
São Salvador31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Isaac de Benguela
0.98
São Salvador
0.87

Isaac de Benguela creates 13% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 44 away

creates per match

Isaac de Benguela
0.62
São Salvador
0.59

allows per match

Isaac de Benguela
1.15
São Salvador
1.34

finishing

Isaac de Benguela+0.00on par
São Salvador+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Isaac de Benguela ↓

São Salvador →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Isaac de Benguela or draw
69%
Isaac de Benguela or São Salvador
68%
Draw or São Salvador
63%

Winning margin

Isaac de Benguela wins by 2+
14%
São Salvador wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Isaac de Benguela 1+ goals
62%
Isaac de Benguela 2+ goals
26%
Isaac de Benguela 3+ goals
8%
São Salvador 1+ goals
58%
São Salvador 2+ goals
22%
São Salvador 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Isaac de Benguela (draw refunded)
54%
São Salvador (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Isaac de Benguela at home — creates 0.62, concedes 1.15 · 26 matches

São Salvador away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.34 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Isaac de Benguela attack 0.62 + São Salvador defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 0.98

São Salvador attack 0.59 + Isaac de Benguela defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Isaac de Benguela scores more
37%
level
32%
São Salvador scores more
31%

Isaac de Benguela at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Isaac de Benguela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'
Lito
52'
87'
Kimuanga

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Girabola: Isaac de Benguela 1–2 São Salvador

São Salvador beat Isaac de Benguela 2-1 in Girabola on December 21, 2024.

Goals: Lito (42'), ? (52'), Kimuanga (87').

The match was played at Estádio de São Filipe in Benguela.