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São Salvador vs Carmona — Girabola 2019

São Salvador
São Salvador
FT
3 – 0
Carmona
Carmona
5/10/2025GirabolaGirabola · Round 28Campo de Futebol Alvaro Buta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

São Salvador71%
×Draw20%
Carmona9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

São Salvador
1.94
Carmona
0.54

São Salvador creates 259% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 15 away

creates per match

São Salvador
1.41
Carmona
0.33

allows per match

São Salvador
0.75
Carmona
2.47

finishing

São Salvador+0.00on par
Carmona+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

São Salvador ↓

Carmona →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–19%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–16%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

São Salvador or draw
91%
São Salvador or Carmona
80%
Draw or Carmona
29%

Winning margin

São Salvador wins by 2+
44%
Carmona wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

São Salvador 1+ goals
86%
São Salvador 2+ goals
58%
São Salvador 3+ goals
30%
Carmona 1+ goals
42%
Carmona 2+ goals
10%
Carmona 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

São Salvador (draw refunded)
88%
Carmona (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

São Salvador at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.75 · 44 matches

Carmona away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.47 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

São Salvador attack 1.41 + Carmona defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 1.94

Carmona attack 0.33 + São Salvador defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

São Salvador scores more
71%
level
20%
Carmona scores more
9%

São Salvador at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "São Salvador will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Girabola: São Salvador 3–0 Carmona

São Salvador beat Carmona 3-0 in Girabola on May 10, 2025.

The match was played at Campo de Futebol Alvaro Buta in M'banza-Kongo.