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Carmona vs São Salvador — Girabola 2019

Carmona
Carmona
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
São Salvador
São Salvador
12/7/2024GirabolaGirabola · Round 13Estádio 4 de Janeiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Carmona35%
×Draw35%
São Salvador30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carmona
0.87
São Salvador
0.79

Carmona creates 10% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 44 away

creates per match

Carmona
0.40
São Salvador
0.59

allows per match

Carmona
1.00
São Salvador
1.34

finishing

Carmona+0.00on par
São Salvador+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carmona ↓

São Salvador →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–115%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
49%51%2.5
23%77%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Carmona or draw
70%
Carmona or São Salvador
65%
Draw or São Salvador
65%

Winning margin

Carmona wins by 2+
12%
São Salvador wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Carmona 1+ goals
58%
Carmona 2+ goals
22%
Carmona 3+ goals
6%
São Salvador 1+ goals
55%
São Salvador 2+ goals
19%
São Salvador 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Carmona (draw refunded)
53%
São Salvador (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carmona at home — creates 0.40, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

São Salvador away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.34 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carmona attack 0.40 + São Salvador defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 0.87

São Salvador attack 0.59 + Carmona defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Carmona scores more
35%
level
35%
São Salvador scores more
30%

Carmona at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Carmona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Girabola: Carmona 2–2 São Salvador

Carmona and São Salvador drew 2-2 in Girabola on December 7, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio 4 de Janeiro in Uíge.