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Sao Raimundo vs Real Desportivo Ariquemes — Serie D 2018

Sao Raimundo
Sao Raimundo
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Real Desportivo Ariquemes
Real Desportivo Ariquemes
5/6/2018Serie DSerie D · Round 3Estádio Raimundo Ribeiro de Souza (Boa Vista, Roraima)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sao Raimundo73%
×Draw16%
Real Desportivo Ariquemes11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sao Raimundo
2.45
Real Desportivo Ariquemes
0.81

Sao Raimundo creates 202% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 15 away

creates per match

Sao Raimundo
2.02
Real Desportivo Ariquemes
0.73

allows per match

Sao Raimundo
0.90
Real Desportivo Ariquemes
2.87

finishing

Sao Raimundo+0.00on par
Real Desportivo Ariquemes+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sao Raimundo ↓

Real Desportivo Ariquemes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Sao Raimundo or draw
89%
Sao Raimundo or Real Desportivo Ariquemes
84%
Draw or Real Desportivo Ariquemes
27%

Winning margin

Sao Raimundo wins by 2+
50%
Real Desportivo Ariquemes wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Sao Raimundo 1+ goals
91%
Sao Raimundo 2+ goals
70%
Sao Raimundo 3+ goals
44%
Real Desportivo Ariquemes 1+ goals
56%
Real Desportivo Ariquemes 2+ goals
19%
Real Desportivo Ariquemes 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Sao Raimundo (draw refunded)
87%
Real Desportivo Ariquemes (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sao Raimundo at home — creates 2.02, concedes 0.90 · 50 matches

Real Desportivo Ariquemes away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sao Raimundo attack 2.02 + Real Desportivo Ariquemes defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.45

Real Desportivo Ariquemes attack 0.73 + Sao Raimundo defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Sao Raimundo scores more
73%
level
16%
Real Desportivo Ariquemes scores more
11%

Sao Raimundo at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Sao Raimundo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sao Raimundo vs Real Desportivo Ariquemes

Sao Raimundo beat Real Desportivo Ariquemes 3-1 in Serie D on May 6, 2018.

The match was played at Estádio Raimundo Ribeiro de Souza (Boa Vista, Roraima).