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Real Desportivo Ariquemes vs Sao Raimundo — Serie D 2018

Real Desportivo Ariquemes
Real Desportivo Ariquemes
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Sao Raimundo
Sao Raimundo
5/13/2018Serie DSerie D · Round 4Estádio Municipal Gentil Valério (Ariquemes, Rondônia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Real Desportivo Ariquemes28%
×Draw26%
Sao Raimundo46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Desportivo Ariquemes
1.08
Sao Raimundo
1.47

Sao Raimundo creates 36% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 49 away

creates per match

Real Desportivo Ariquemes
0.80
Sao Raimundo
0.88

allows per match

Real Desportivo Ariquemes
2.07
Sao Raimundo
1.37

finishing

Real Desportivo Ariquemes+0.00on par
Sao Raimundo+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Desportivo Ariquemes ↓

Sao Raimundo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Real Desportivo Ariquemes or draw
54%
Real Desportivo Ariquemes or Sao Raimundo
74%
Draw or Sao Raimundo
72%

Winning margin

Real Desportivo Ariquemes wins by 2+
11%
Sao Raimundo wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Real Desportivo Ariquemes 1+ goals
66%
Real Desportivo Ariquemes 2+ goals
29%
Real Desportivo Ariquemes 3+ goals
10%
Sao Raimundo 1+ goals
77%
Sao Raimundo 2+ goals
43%
Sao Raimundo 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Real Desportivo Ariquemes (draw refunded)
38%
Sao Raimundo (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Desportivo Ariquemes at home — creates 0.80, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

Sao Raimundo away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.37 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Desportivo Ariquemes attack 0.80 + Sao Raimundo defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.08

Sao Raimundo attack 0.88 + Real Desportivo Ariquemes defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Real Desportivo Ariquemes scores more
28%
level
26%
Sao Raimundo scores more
46%

Sao Raimundo at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sao Raimundo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Real Desportivo Ariquemes vs Sao Raimundo

Real Desportivo Ariquemes and Sao Raimundo drew 2-2 in Serie D on May 13, 2018.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Gentil Valério (Ariquemes, Rondônia).