Sao Raimundo PA 1–1 Real Desportivo Ariquemes

Sao Raimundo PA

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Real Desportivo Ariquemes

4/22/2018

Serie D · Round 1Estádio Jader Fontenelle Barbalho (Santarém, Pará)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Sao Raimundo PA68%

×Draw18%

Real Desportivo Ariquemes14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sao Raimundo PAExpected goals in this matchReal Desportivo Ariquemes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.38

0.99

Sao Raimundo PA

2.38

Real Desportivo Ariquemes

0.99

Sao Raimundo PA creates 140% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 15 away

1.88

creates per match

0.73

1.25

allows per match

2.87

creates per match

Sao Raimundo PA

1.88

Real Desportivo Ariquemes

0.73

allows per match

Sao Raimundo PA

1.25

Real Desportivo Ariquemes

2.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sao Raimundo PA+0.00on par

Real Desportivo Ariquemes+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sao Raimundo PA ↓

Real Desportivo Ariquemes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Sao Raimundo PA or draw

86%

Sao Raimundo PA or Real Desportivo Ariquemes

82%

Draw or Real Desportivo Ariquemes

32%

Winning margin

Sao Raimundo PA wins by 2+

45%

Real Desportivo Ariquemes wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Sao Raimundo PA 1+ goals

91%

Sao Raimundo PA 2+ goals

68%

Sao Raimundo PA 3+ goals

42%

Real Desportivo Ariquemes 1+ goals

63%

Real Desportivo Ariquemes 2+ goals

26%

Real Desportivo Ariquemes 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Sao Raimundo PA (draw refunded)

83%

Real Desportivo Ariquemes (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sao Raimundo PA at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

Real Desportivo Ariquemes away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sao Raimundo PA attack 1.88 + Real Desportivo Ariquemes defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.38

Real Desportivo Ariquemes attack 0.73 + Sao Raimundo PA defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Sao Raimundo PA scores more

68%

level

18%

Real Desportivo Ariquemes scores more

14%

Sao Raimundo PA at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Sao Raimundo PA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff