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Real Desportivo Ariquemes vs Sao Raimundo PA — Serie D 2018

Real Desportivo Ariquemes
Real Desportivo Ariquemes
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sao Raimundo PA
Sao Raimundo PA
5/27/2018Serie DSerie D · Round 6Estádio Municipal Gentil Valério (Ariquemes, Rondônia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Real Desportivo Ariquemes20%
×Draw26%
Sao Raimundo PA54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Real Desportivo Ariquemes
0.83
Sao Raimundo PA
1.53

Sao Raimundo PA creates 84% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 7 away

creates per match

Real Desportivo Ariquemes
0.80
Sao Raimundo PA
1.00

allows per match

Real Desportivo Ariquemes
2.07
Sao Raimundo PA
0.86

finishing

Real Desportivo Ariquemes+0.00on par
Sao Raimundo PA+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Desportivo Ariquemes ↓

Sao Raimundo PA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–114%
0–211%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Real Desportivo Ariquemes or draw
46%
Real Desportivo Ariquemes or Sao Raimundo PA
74%
Draw or Sao Raimundo PA
80%

Winning margin

Real Desportivo Ariquemes wins by 2+
6%
Sao Raimundo PA wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Real Desportivo Ariquemes 1+ goals
56%
Real Desportivo Ariquemes 2+ goals
20%
Real Desportivo Ariquemes 3+ goals
5%
Sao Raimundo PA 1+ goals
78%
Sao Raimundo PA 2+ goals
45%
Sao Raimundo PA 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Real Desportivo Ariquemes (draw refunded)
27%
Sao Raimundo PA (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Desportivo Ariquemes at home — creates 0.80, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

Sao Raimundo PA away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Desportivo Ariquemes attack 0.80 + Sao Raimundo PA defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.83

Sao Raimundo PA attack 1.00 + Real Desportivo Ariquemes defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Real Desportivo Ariquemes scores more
20%
level
26%
Sao Raimundo PA scores more
54%

Sao Raimundo PA at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Sao Raimundo PA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D: Real Desportivo Ariquemes 1–1 Sao Raimundo PA

Real Desportivo Ariquemes and Sao Raimundo PA drew 1-1 in Serie D on May 27, 2018.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Gentil Valério (Ariquemes, Rondônia).