São Paulo W 2–0 Real Brasília W: Result & Stats

São Paulo W

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Real Brasília W

6/20/2021

Brasileiro Women · 1st Phase - 14Centro de Formação de Atletas Presidente Laudo Natel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

São Paulo W67%

×Draw20%

Real Brasília W14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

São Paulo WExpected goals in this matchReal Brasília W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

0.83

São Paulo W

2.12

Real Brasília W

0.83

São Paulo W creates 155% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 40 away

2.15

creates per match

0.82

0.85

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

São Paulo W

2.15

Real Brasília W

0.82

allows per match

São Paulo W

0.85

Real Brasília W

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

São Paulo W+0.00on par

Real Brasília W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

São Paulo W ↓

Real Brasília W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

São Paulo W or draw

86%

São Paulo W or Real Brasília W

80%

Draw or Real Brasília W

33%

Winning margin

São Paulo W wins by 2+

43%

Real Brasília W wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

São Paulo W 1+ goals

88%

São Paulo W 2+ goals

62%

São Paulo W 3+ goals

35%

Real Brasília W 1+ goals

56%

Real Brasília W 2+ goals

20%

Real Brasília W 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

São Paulo W (draw refunded)

83%

Real Brasília W (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

São Paulo W at home — creates 2.15, concedes 0.85 · 65 matches

Real Brasília W away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.08 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

São Paulo W attack 2.15 + Real Brasília W defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.12

Real Brasília W attack 0.82 + São Paulo W defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

São Paulo W scores more

67%

level

20%

Real Brasília W scores more

14%

São Paulo W at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "São Paulo W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff